Absurdity?

1. Why would someone buy a bond that has negative yield? (Meaning that you will lose money for sure, you need to PAY so that government will borrow from you.) I give you 100 now and you give me back 99.9 in 3 months, sounds great to me. I guess only those mutual fund that REQUIRE their fund to invest in T-bill will buy these, so much for paying rediculus management fees for them to lose money FOR SURE.
2. Why is CDS (insurance protection against default) of government bonds so high when the price of the government bonds are rising so fast? People are buying at a higher price while thinking that the default risk is going higher also? Crazy! One side must be wrong... (it's quite obvious which side that is)
3. Why is the stock market rising (GREED) when the bonds are showing FEAR only?
   

Someone please answer me :)

Leave some comments!!

啊媽都呃我!?

前排啊媽send 左個email 比我:

SLS是什麼---難怪每4人就有1人得癌症!!!!!

大家信其有不可信其無道理，避得就避，健康第一。
SLS是什麼---難怪每4人就有1人得癌症!!!!!

SLS是什麼？不看會後悔 !!

有個唸清華化學博士的朋友證實過這件事，有個簡單的方法可以分辨：

大部分呈現透明狀的清潔用品大均是因為含有SLS成份，不只洗髮精、沐浴乳、洗潔劑等等都有可能有這個成份，加了SLS後，會使它清澈漂亮，所以廠商基於消費者的心態只好添加了！
檢查一下你用的洗髮精的成份標示，看看是否有種叫Sodium Laureth Sulfate（或簡稱SLS）的物質。
在大部分的洗髮精中都有這種物質，製造商用它來產生許多泡沫，而且也很便宜。
但 事實上，它是用來刷洗車庫或修車廠的地板，作用非常強烈。

它已被證明長期使用會致癌，這可不是說著玩的！

回家以後，我趕緊看了我的沙宣洗髮精，幸好它沒有含SLS成份。但是其它像＊O5(＊吾髮)，＊＊＊molive（＊欖）等等都含有SLS物質。所以我就打電話給其中一家廠，我告訴他們：嗨！你們的產品含致癌物！」你知道他們怎麼回答？
「這個我們也知道！可是我們也無可奈何，因為洗髮精需要它來產生泡沫。」
所以下次選購清潔用品千萬不要選透明的。
(EX.多芬系列產品就沒有SL，所以它比較! )
對了！＊露潔牙膏也含有相同的物質來產生泡泡;由報導顯示，致癌機率已從198年代八千分之一到1990年代的三分之一，可說相當嚴重。

希望大家能重視這個問題，也告知親朋好友。

早就同佢講，send mass email 係唔岩的，可惜啊媽教而不善，繼續send。 雖然佢以為咁係好事，想幫佢身邊既人，不過mass email 完全係一種浪費同垃圾。重好易中毒。

以我咁skeptical 既人，我當然唔會就咁信啦! 我一去wikipedia 睇，原來真係假既!

立刻回左個email，打救世人:

首先講你知，個email 8 年前已經証明係假的，居然有人改做中文，又去呃人。

下次改番美國哈佛咪重可以玩多次?

如果你傳過個email 比人，我認為你有責任去澄清，因為你比假野人。
> 希望大家能重視這個問題，也告知親朋好友。 (用番佢果句)

SLS 是什麼? 好簡單，就係CH3(CH2)10CH2(OCH2CH2)nOSO3Na.

SLS根本唔係致癌物質，就算你不斷咁用，用足一世，重要你夠長命，都只會增加1/3000以下既癌症機會。 我好相信大家根本無咁長命可以去中果1/3000 既機會。更加唔會係乜野1/4。

The Cosmetic, Toiletry, and Fragrance Association (CTFA) and the American Cancer Societyurban legend have stated that the common belief that SLES is a carcinogen is an, a view confirmed by toxicology research by the OSHA, NTP, and IARC.^[2]

唔該睇下，下面大把証明，完全同果個所謂既"清華化學教授"証言差天共地。
唔好人講就信! 唔知就唔好再同其它人講! 唔好令其它人有錯誤既資料，作出錯誤既決定。

要認清楚乜野係証據，乜野係吹水!

References

1. ^ Sodium Laureth Sulfate POE(2). Chemical Land 21, Seoul, Korea. Product Identification
2. ^ Rumor: Sodium Lauryl Sulfate Causes Cancer. The Cosmetic, Toiletry, and Fragrance Association. 13, October 2000. Consumer Information
3. ^ Roderick E. Black, Fred J. Hurley, Donald C. Havery. Occurrence of 1,4-Dioxane in Cosmetic Raw Materials and Finished Cosmetic Products. Journal of AOAC International.2001 May;84(3):666-670. Abstract
4. ^ 1,4-Dioxane (1,4-Diethyleneoxide). Hazard Summary. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Created in April 1992; Revised in January 2000. Fact Sheet
5. ^ FDA/CFSAN--Cosmetics Handbook Part 3: Cosmetic Product-Related Regulatory Requirements and Health Hazard Issues. Prohibited Ingredients and other Hazardous Substances: 9. Dioxane

所以呢，就算係啊媽講既，你地都要唸過先好信啊!

No trend

The market has no trend in the past few days, as the downward trend was broken with people believing we have reached a bottom. However, almost all newspaper and commentors say that we are not out of the woods yet (which is true). So the selling pressure after the rally will be great.

As I believe one should not go against the trend, I will wait until a top have been confirmed before going short again. For now, I will hold.

STUPIDITY

I find it very stupid when everyone thinks that this is just short term rally and will drop again soon, but at the same time they are buying into the rally hoping to sell it in the short term. This is simply very very stupid, I do not see the logic behind. Greed will make you poor.

ProShares Rolls Out Commodity and Currency 2x and -2x ETFs

Very good idea, I can see the age of ETFs coming.

This is much easier to trade than futures but still give you 2 times leverage. You also will not lose more than your principal.

May use the "ultra yen" when the right time comes.... Ultra gold is also interesting!!

Buy Puts on US Treasuries

我感覺到有Arbitrage 既機會.... 同上年股票一樣，不過唔係太識點做，有無高人可以指點下?

不過簡單D講.....又可以用 Black Swan (黑天鵝) 戰術啦

上年: 股票升到痴晒線，唔知頂係邊
今天: US Treasury 升到痴晒線，唔知頂係邊

係這個時候，Black -Scholes Option Pricing Model 就出現左好明顯既問題:

Risk is not normally distributed.

明顯，順住個勢，US Treasury 係會繼續升，因為大家重要去避險。
1) 升既機會率>跌既機會

更加明顯既，係升既時候，個波幅係細過跌既時候。因為咁升法，升到咁唔會理既水平，一跌就會好甘。
2) 升市波幅 < 跌市波幅

結論:

Buy Put every month, until it drops.

原因:
雖然我覺得升既機會係大過跌，不過你應該係買跌先正確。
就好似買馬咁，A馬有 60% 機會贏，B馬有40%機會贏。 但係，A既賠率係1.5倍，B既賠率係10倍。 係咁既時候，你當然應該係買B馬啦! 只要買多幾時，你既 Expected Return 肯定高好多。

好多師奶都係唔明E個道理所以買親窩輪都輸。

Another reason to buy yen....

Japan May Allow Tax Breaks on Profits Returned From Abroad to Spur Economy

長線投資已死

找到個幾好既網頁

http://diary-of-investments.blogspot.com/

裡面既野係copy 番以前既一些article，我都睇過，好唔錯。
你有時間自已睇下啦，我抽重點出來算。

1.

假設樓市不跌成大錯 (by 黃元山)

投行之間興起將次按打包CDO的時候，黃元山剛調職往英國倫敦的雷曼兄弟工作，亦有接觸相關產品，「要知道美國樓 巿那時候從未跌過價，所以即使是次按， 其還款率都很高，都能夠被評為AAA級，並不是垃圾。當時整個巿場都認為美國樓巿是最穩定的工具，已經commonly perceived（普遍認知）它是不會跌的。現在回想當然覺得任何東西都沒有不跌的可能，但當時大家的而且確是這樣認知，故此包裝產品的行為便變得很 sensible（合情理）。」

香港大把人以為樓係一定升既，又話乜土地有很，供應少，人又多，中國人鍾意買樓.. bull shit!
寫果條友自已都唔信啦! 信左去買樓咁你就抵死啦! 重好啦，有樓比你跳。咁蠢無謂獻世。

2.
長線買左優質股實升

「長線投資的好處是，你不會高買低賣，但只適用于大牛巿 的時候，縱使有ups and downs，但股巿整體向上，當然OK。但這種投資方法only works in a secular bull market！（只適用于百年大牛市）而現在則是大熊巿，是超級大熊巿，那是我父母輩也沒有見過的，Secular Bear Market（百年大熊市）裡面，長線投資並不可行！」

黃元山舉例，當1929年美國步入大蕭條時，股巿狂瀉，如果信奉長線投資法入巿，要一直等到五十年代，股巿才回升至當時的水位，「你系咪真系等到咁耐？」

以日本為例，若投資者于八十年代開始購買當地股票，則時至今日，日本股巿的股值仍未達到八十年代股價高峰期的一半。簡單而言，所謂的長線投資已不再是三、五年可以回本，有可能高達20年，甚而30年。

我唔知有無百年大熊市，不過我知道從來無野係實升既。如果你覺得有，你極大可能係唔識乜野係風險，以為自已好X勁。不過如果你重有上年買既股票，你要有心理準確佢一世都唔會番家鄉啦。 因為世界經濟結構已經改變左，例如銀行已經永久地失去左好多ibank 同 derivative 既收入，唔會番來架啦。 記住唔好 fall in love with 你既股票，因為love...係盲既。 你同你情人盲就夠啦，唔洗盲多次呀嘛!!

3.
印銀紙救市，經濟好快好

「當經濟回複增長以後，你就會發現，幹嗎世界上有這麼多銀紙？」原來各國現時不斷複印貨幣，用以挽救這場金融海嘯，是要付出沉重代價的。無限印製終會帶來惡果，就是出現惡性通脹這個最壞的時刻。

惡性通脹以往只在新興巿場例如阿根廷和南美洲發生過，從未有人想過，惡性通脹一樣可以在發展國家出現，甚至在全球同時出現，「屆時情況會非常惡劣，美 金、港幣、人民幣都幫不上忙了。你唯一是買金保值，還要是實金，一條條的。」

依個睇法我幾同意，不過我都明白政府係迫住要救既。所以大家一齊等100蚊食茶餐廳lunch既日子啦!!

4.中國加基健，谷內需好X勁?

中國經濟結構係39─37─37（部分互疊），即資本投資佔GDP 39％、內部消費佔37％、出口有關業務佔37％。美國經濟係19─70─13，內部消費佔70％。由此可見，中國擴大內需對GDP增長率影響唔大，一如 美國擴大出口對GDP影響唔大嘅理由一樣。中國未來資本投資除鐵路外，其他項目已接近飽和；出口增長率明年起亦大幅放緩，只擴大內需對明年GDP增長率影 響有幾大？

5.美股極可能步日股後塵
1929年10月道指高點，要到1954年才打和（共二十五年）；1973年3月恒指高點要到1986年才打和（共十三年）；1990年日經見高點，十八 年後今天卻創新低。2007年10月道指及恒指高點又點睇？真係英雄被困筲箕灣，不知何日返中環。1929年道指386點，响兩年零十個月內急瀉 89.3％，然後由1932年5月嘅41.66反彈至1937年193點（即反彈前跌幅56％），然後一直牛皮到第二次世界大戰結束，美股才重新出現大牛 市【圖一】。至今道指跌咗一年，跌幅不足50％，係咪應該入市博？木宰羊。

1997年7月我地炒爆咗香港房地產，2000年我地炒爆咗科網股，2007年10月全球股市地產資源皆炒爆……。邊個知下次抄咩就發達啦 XD

不過當然，所以野都唔好輕易相信!! 例如果個所謂"雷曼首代CDO設計者黃元山"，就好明顯唔係設計果個啦，我聽聞佢係Sales，你覺得sales會唔會真係設計者 ? 重要首代?

Be skeptical!

買樓投資!?

識我既人都知我完全唔讚成買樓係一種好既投資方法。買樓可以當投資重可以養老只係迷信!

講簡單D，樓只係高風險 ，低回報的一種資產。你買得唔好隨時變左負擔，唔係資產。

高風險:

1. 低流通量 (你最需要錢果時，就係經濟差，無成交果時，死未)
2. 借錢好危險的，好多人都唔明白做mortgage 同抄孖展係一樣既.....
3. 一跌就跌得好快，重要係成交弱果時
4. 個P任銀行改，佢加到100%你都要比
5. 租比人好快用到間屋殘
6. 比人知道你既財富有幾多
7. 天災人禍，可能連樓都無埋 (得罪人可能比人燒屋，但係燒唔到你股票同存款掛)

低回報:

1. 絕大多數跑輸股市
2. 絕大多數跑輸地產股
3. 好有可能跑輸定期
4. 好多費用要交 (差響，地租，管理費，大廈維修費，保險等....) [又麻煩又晒時間]
5. 回報要扣好多費用，除左上面果d，重有離印費，律師費，佣，雜費......(2 次，買同賣都要)

請不要再迷信，不要人講就信，不要做野唔經大腦。

如果你咁鍾意買樓，你就買房地產信託基金(REITS)啦，雖然都唔係咁好架啦:

例如 : 陽光房地產基金
http://www.sunlightreit.com/chi/index.htm

市價 = 1.38
雖然佢只係有 2、3流既商廈同商陽，不過根據佢既2008 Annual Report，佢淨資產有3.41。 P/B 得 0.4。 即係市場已經當佢既大廈會跌 6成。 (我唸無咁多掛，本來都唔係1線既場啦，雖然以前個價可能有水份)

最勁係佢派 0.242 HKD 既股息，你現在買有 17% 息。 (有用財技先咁高，不過唔計佢都有12%，不過應該唔會咁快無既)

即係就算佢一半既鋪位租唔出你都重有8% 息。

不過小心的我，唔會咁就買既。我根本唔覺得香港樓時會升番，可能一世都唔會。

不過你都要小心，香港既Reits都有"啊媽"既。果D啊媽好無良心，今年隻 2778 冠君產業信託 就係啊媽度高價接左橦"朗豪坊"番來，真係欲哭無淚..... btw，高價=125億元，搞到要集資。

你都有去過朗豪坊，你覺得佢係咪值125 億呢? 見人見智啦。

You know one industry is in "bubble" state when....

all your friends are working in that industry......

Looking Back......

My US account since 01 March 2007.... (no...I did not trade before I left my job ga, just virtual trading la :) )

So far performance is ...... +29.3% If I use asset value now over total capital invested.
If I invest everything in the beginning, I will have +60.6% return.

I dunno if that's good or not la.... at least I did not lose money this year....

I did some analysis myself:

Month	Darkwind's Performance	Hang Seng Index Performance
Mar-07	-0.5%	0.8%
Apr-07	21.4%	2.6%
May-07	29.5%	1.6%
Jun-07	2.1%	5.5%
Jul-07	15.5%	6.5%
Aug-07	-16.6%	3.4%
Sep-07	0.7%	13.2%
Oct-07	8.5%	15.5%
Nov-07	-4.8%	-8.6%
Dec-07	-1.7%	-2.9%
Jan-08	0.2%	-15.7%
Feb-08	14.3%	3.7%
Mar-08	-5.0%	-6.1%
Apr-08	-7.1%	12.7%
May-08	5.3%	-4.7%
Jun-08	4.6%	-9.9%
Jul-08	-3.9%	2.8%
Aug-08	4.4%	-6.5%
Sep-08	-10.7%	-15.3%
Oct-08	-12.7%	-22.5%
Nov-08	17.5%	-5.3%
Total Return	60.6%	-32.7%
Standard Deviation	11.7%	9.9%
Sharpe Ratio	5.2	-3.3

I think I behave more like a hedge fund... my performance is not really correlate to the market...

Predictions on Properties & Commodities

Properties:

Global properties are going down, worst in UK and Aus... They are way too leveraged before, even more so than USA. Now they will see years of declining to come.

HK is no much better, although the newspaper may tell you we are much healthier financially than 1997.

My prediction for 2008: HK property price down 20%, with very low volume.

Reasons: HK people are less leverage this time and most medium to low price flats are mortgaged at a affordable level. Those high end are doomed, as they rise too much and the real demand: rich bankers and overseas workers, are declining fast.

However, due to the fact that people are less leveraged this time, flat owners will NOT be willing to sell their flat at a much lower price. The buyer, on the other hand, expect the price to go down further.

End result: Very low volume, as sellers unwilling to lower price, buyers no want to buy yet. Transaction prices will lack indicative power, and difference between transactions will be great, as some sellers who need cash quickly will accept huge discounts.

Commodities:

This time is "different" !?

Well, that is a very common sentence in the finance world. However, I do think the recession this time is different from the previous few recessions. In the recession in 1991, 1997, 2001, only one sector was collapsing. This time, it is the banks that are collapsing, which affect everyone's pocket.

Let me explain in more detail:

Mines, oil wells, corn field... all need financing to start. The world have basically stopped to finance large projects like that, which means we will not se new gold mines, new iron mines or oil wells in the near future...

Adding to that, all countries are printing money now, which will come back to haunt us when economy finally bottoms. With no new supplies and demand coming back, all those new money will add inflationary pressure to commodities.

I am not saying commodities will rise any time soon, but this problem will be a drag for the recovering phase after this recession. so I expect this bear market will continue much longer than what most people are expecting...

Pricing in Christmas

Bailout plans, stimulus plans, relief Plans, infrastructure development plans.....

We see so many plans in the news these few month, on top of the bankruptcy news that are filling the headlines. The market bound a bit and analyst/commenters change their tone accordingly. The next few days, market is down again.

Its like having a stomachache, it is very painful and you have to shit non-stop. Eating an energy bar every now and then may let you feel better, but things are still leaking below and you are not out of the shit room yet. Only when you have shit all the dirty, toxic "food" you ate, and your intestines calm down, you can wipe your ass and go back to work.

Sorry for this smelly example, I apologize for my lack of imagination, but this is the closest metaphor I can think of in the last 5 minutes.

So... how does this relate to pricing in Christmas? Well, its the same idea, imagine celebrating christmas with your pants of and busy shitting. Must be fun huh?

All those actions and plans just mean we are in for the worst Christmas economically for the last 70 years. You can't really spend when you already pay over $1 trillion for Thanksgiving.

I do not see what the Bush government can do before he say byebye. Still a bear, I see no exit yet. Don't talk about de-coupling with me before you study atomic physics 101. :)

Finally, let's look at the graph of Japan's Nikkei 225 and HK's Hang Seng Index:
We are still in 1991!! Without the financial bubble, imagine what will happen to stock price and housing price!! Depreciate over the next 20 years??

Trend is your friend

跌市唔好搏反彈，升市唔好搏調整。
順勢一定好過逆勢而行。

所以唔好信埋D咩"跌得好殘應該買" 同 "升左咁多唔好追"
Bull shit!

The Japs are buying...

Japan is one of my most familiar market, as I spend nearly one year just focusing on Japanese market. Japanese companies and their banks are famous for their conservatism and their large pile of cash.

The Japs have been soo risk-averse after the 1990 bubble burst that they love to be "debt-free", the exact opposite of their US counterparts. There is a dilemma in this, as Japanese companies has very little growth in the domestic market, but are reluctant to borrow and expand to other countries. This problem is especially obvious for the big Japanese banks, which has large retail deposits but no where to spend it. Explanation: Japs love to put their cash in banks, they do no trust the stock market anymore. They also know that the housing market is not guarantee to go up forever (when will Chinese learn that?) , they have experienced the biggest housing bubble before 2008 and also frequent earthquakes confirms their view that real estate is a liability (mortgage payment) while the actual house depreciate over time.

Now the Japanese banks are finally taking action, Mitsubishi UFJ and Nomura have start to purchase overseas business from the dying US financials . This is a good step and will allow them to grow while the domestic market slowly contract due to the aging and decreasing population.

This is the best time for the Japanese companies to put their cash into good use. Not just the banks. I really think Nintendo should do something with their over 1 trillion cash deposit in bank....

Only time will tell if the Jap market will become a market that worth investing again. I still think it is not, not yet.

Financial markets

Well... I have stopped writing about the financial market and economy for a long time, but I think its time to revisit it.

Much have happened in the last few months, especially last weeks. Huge financial entities have collapsed, bailout or merged. Things are getting worse... (as expected XD )

Now, you should have seen enough of those bad news, let's talk about something else! Sovereign wealth funds (SWF), one of the big topics last year, is now almost forgotten. However, I think that their importance now is higher than ever. They are probably one of the few big institutions that are still holding a lot of cash to purchase. They have a few aims: get better return from their countries reserve funds, gain "power" in international relationship with their money, secure resources and technology.

For example, you can expect Chinese Investment Corp to increase their investment in resources companies/ actual mines. The prices have come down a lot and they should have much higher bargaining power now, I do not think those "patriots" have much say now when their economies need cash so urgently. The incident of CNOOC failing to buy Unocal because of politics should be harder to repeat now.

Out of my guts feelings, I think SWF will also increase their spending in the real estate market. Targets including class A commercial properties in NY, London and other major cities. Residential properties may have some potentials too. However it is hard to detect as SWF are usually very secretive. This is a good chance for them to get a long term income generating asset with proven record (they are not venture capital after all).

SWF may well be the "investor of last resort" in the current market. Keep your eyes for their news!!


By the way, seems that a lot of people are thinking the same thing as me:
Vitasoy (維他奶) was up 15% on 22 Sep. (Many restaurants use vitasoy instead of milk now!)

非常欣賞的一句話/一種觀點

"不能因為天外飛來的念頭，可以將各種相異的事象加以整合的說明，就斷定這個假說正確的事實。倒不如說這才是停止思考的原因。尚未獲得充分情報，就直接跳到自己喜歡的結論是非常危險的。"

出處我就不說了，有興趣你自已也可以找到。

The9 Drops 20% As NetEase Inks Deal With Activision

太誇張啦....半日無左20%!!! 重要係我訓緊覺既時候!!幾分鐘無左 1/5既價值，我絕對唔相信這間公司既價值有變過囉。

無左 Starcraft 2, Warcraft 3 同 Battlenet 姐.....唔係無左 WOW (魔獸世界)嘛....
本來都無乜用架啦，簽唔到番來，都無損失。果種可以免費可以上網玩既游戲，中國只會變左番牌游戲。又唔可能賣item，賣點數，都唔知可以點做。但係咁睇個勢，Diablo 3都會係NetEase 架啦。

雖然個個都會聯想到咁代表The9 同blizzard的關系不好，但MMORPG 根本同RTS游戲唔同! 明顯Blizzard係有分開考慮的。The 9 已經得到Warth of Lich King，重想點?

不過我的The9 股票就唔知點啦，我覺得重會有得跌，但佢又唔係真係只值咁少。唉 ><

無好奇心仍算是人嗎? Curiosity and Man

一直以來我都覺得，人如果無求知既心(好奇心)，咁我地既生存意義根本同動物無乜分別。
可能係講得誇張左，不過除左更加了解這個世界之外，人重可以做咩野係有意義的?
不過講就咁講，人通常都係生活得開心，唔會理有無意義。

由細開始我都好鍾意問野，同埋唔會輕易相信一樣野，可以話係好skeptical。

例由，見到一架車會行走，我就會想知點解車會行。通常會一步步咁唸:

(我覺得好多人最多去到第3~4部，佢地既好奇心就得到滿足。)

車會行，因為:
1. 個車軑會轉，同地面磨擦，產生反作用力。
2. 點解車軑會轉? 因為有摩打(引擎)。
3. 點解摩打可以轉? 因為用左汽油。
4.點解汽油可以令摩打轉? 因為汽油的化學能變成動能。
5.點將化學能變成動能? 有秩序地引爆汽油，推動引擎的活塞，從而令連住活塞的曲軸。
6.點解汽油可以爆? 因為佢分子之間的電子排序方式儲藏了能量，可經由丟掉電子給氧化劑來放出能量(光 + 熱)。
7.點解改變電子排序方式可以放出能量? 因為電子運行的軌道和它有的能量是有關的 (好似你上山要能量，電子要去"高"點的軌道也要能量。) 氧化過程就好似你落山咁，放番能量出來 (通常以發射光子 (光線/電磁波)的型式。 (因為能量是不滅的，一定要放番出來。)
8. 點解電子排序方式會改變? 因為，改變後的排列方式，是無數種排列方式中最高機會發生的。
其它任何的排序方式都是有可能的。(佢唔氧化既機會唔係無，不過極底。這已經去到量子力學)
9. 要知道唔同排列方式的機會率，就要計好多數啦......


感覺好多人唔係無好奇心，不過就去晒D好無謂既娛樂新聞果度。通常都係超普通既事，完全無特別....例如:
1. A小姐去了B酒巴會見了C先生。 (如果變左你啊爸同你啊媽去飲茶，咁D人重有無興趣呀?)
2. A小姐結婚/生仔/去街/食野/病左...... (同樣，個個都會架啦...可能下次有人見到佢呼吸都要報道)

我曾經發現有幾個人(都係香港人，唔係BB仔)，居然唔知道以下其中一樣野:

1. 地球圍繞太陽轉
2. 美國係邊度
3. male 同 female 係乜野
4. 猴子/猿唔會再進化做人

唔知既原因係同日常生活無關.............
我第一個反應係覺得佢地唔死都無用，點可以咁基本既求知欲都無???重係人來既?
..............唔通我要求太高??

白痴的中國人

今日在我看中國網游的新聞的時候(最近它們股價都上落不少)，給我發現一個令我覺得大陸超超超級無文化的新聞。太白痴，太唔make sense，太醜陋。

http://data.icxo.com/htmlnews/2008/06/18/1288388_0.htm
大家睇下以上既3頁先，最好睇晒。
以下係非常有"中國特色"既網民反應。太有才了。我可是看了許多不同的網頁才這樣說，不是看了一個新聞就信以為真。
http://news.duowan.com/0805/75999558499.html

如果你唔知既，講你知乜係勁舞團:
《劲舞团》这款游戏在韩国本土几乎无人问津，2005年被引进到中国。它在韩国未能取得成功，主要是因为“技术含量”偏低： 玩家跟随游戏的背景音乐节拍，敲击屏幕显示箭头对应的方向键，世界经理人数据[data.icxo.com]消息：游戏中的“你”会随之跳出各种舞蹈动作。

一個咁簡單，咁幼稚，咁兒童向既"勁舞團"，居然會變成"最色情網游"??這就好像說"米奇老鼠"是馬伕集團首腦一樣。根本完全無關系，就連天線得得B都唔會有咁既奇想。

明顯，中國既"勁舞"，由於國情需要，係有佢"非常"既中國特色。

其實話要營運商負責/要停牌，根本講唔通，也對問題無幫助。根本上的問題，是出在人的身上。
究竟那些人有什麼問題? 是哪些人有問題呢? 可以有好多睇法。

賣淫岩唔岩? 點解咁多少女賣淫? 佢地係咪只係講下，唔係真係賣淫?

政府有無權去禁止佢地講野? (你禁左唔比講 fxxk，賣X，雞...等字眼係無用的，世界上有一種叫火星文既野....)

覺得要禁佢既人究竟智商有幾多? 中國人唸野有無logic? (賣喇叭既人，居然要為買左喇叭既人的發言負責?)

講真無左勁舞，唔通佢地就唔會做雞咩? 佢地都食得太多KFC啦，覺得" We do chicken right. 我們做雞是對的。" 同埋中國可以比人溝通既方式好有限(因為政府規限得好勁)，所以佢地先要係game裡面賣身。

其實，我個人覺得E個游戲裡面既人淫唔淫都唔係問題，我係覺得個游戲太底B，我覺得宜家既細路已經唔再接受到要用"腦"玩既游戲.......唔係重複打怪升呢就係跳舞咁......唉...

咩世界啊，細既就唔想用腦，大既就講野唔經大腦 (重以為自已好有腦)。

最經典(可能最貼切的)描述:
http://zhuboyu.88.blog.163.com/blog/static/891014242008628105229486/

Time to buy Chinese online gaming again!

History seems to be repeating itself, big drop between two quarterly results for no apparent reason.

Now that they are going to release Q2 result soon (July or August), you may get some decent return! I do not think their business model has much to do with inflation or oil price.... People still play online games even when they do not have enough to eat!!

I think the best bet now is SNDA, since it is the biggest and also dropped significantly already.

Keep going down...

It has been weeks since we see one day that the market is gaining. I do not think one should buy yet, as guessing the bottom is too difficult.

I actually short some stocks yesterday to hedge my long positions. Just in case....

My investment is down a little only because my two largest bets are actually up in the last two weeks! My shorts and puts also help a bit but they have all hit their profit taking price and hence I buyback/covered already.

Next step is to wait for a rebound signal, which should be some kind of news, so positive that people can use that as an excuse to buy for several days.

Well....at least Yen move the way I want...

But my call expired already!!

Waiting.... for chance to come up.

Not much good idea these few days.

The defensive Pork Chop!

I was so so so so so wrong yesterday and luckily I did not buy with real money. "Never guess the bottom" is so true.

Anyways, I notice that 1068 HK, the pork producer is extremely defensive in the current market. The support seems so strong that it feels like someone is buying on dips constantly. May be just random, or may be pork price have already increased ahead of time, no more surprises.

I am still bearish overall, and I do not see the end f bear market these 2 years. High inflation globally ---> all central banks increase interest rates ---> global properties price drop


In addition, lots of layoff is happening now in US will cause much better trouble later. Export from Asia will see a second round of contraction with a MUCH higher input price though (look at iron ore and oil price). Natural disasters are adding oil to fire and reduce food/raw material supply further and create even more social unrest. I really do not see much hope yet....

Fed Rate, economy and the market

To be honest, I still do not see clear relationship between them, in the real world (not in textbook).

Fed keep rate unchanged yesterday and US market was basically flat. This "no-change" was highly expected, as there is not much the fed can do when they do not have a clue where economy is going!

I am quite skeptic on the effectiveness of the fed rate, but the central banks seems to believe it is the best tool to "fix the economy" like a caveman believing that his rain dance can really bring rain.

After all, interest rate is just borrowing cost, there are just so many other things, more important things, that can alter the economy. I am convinced that too many people and too much time is spent on analysis the "next move of the fed". " Go to sichuan to help people if you have time do do XXX", just like the people say.

Anyways! I do believe people love to use the fed as an excuse to buy and sell stocks, so I "think" we find a temporary bottom and market should go up till the end of the week (I am 70% confident). Mind you, I may change my mine if oil go thru $140 or inflation of some countries goes thru the roof!!

Crazy Market

Baltic Dry Index dropped 8.7% yesterday, so everyone expected the shipping companies to drop today.

However, the actual drop is not making any sense!

1138-HK  中海發展   21.30 -6.78%
1919-HK  中國遠洋   17.96 -8.55%
2343-HK  太平洋航運 10.88 -1.98%
2866-HK  中海集運   3.130 -4.28%
316-HK  東方海外   43.20 -0.23%

2343 is PURE dry bulk, only drop 2%, 1138 is oil tankers, not dry bulk, but it drop 6.8%!
1919 is like 70% dry bulk, but drop 8.5%.... 2866 is containers....

How to play ah.....

Dow down nearly 400 points

雖然無short 到期指，不過我 cover 番隻Citigroup put. 訓學之前已經 賣左.....點知訓緊果時佢重跌多左。 不過算啦，唔好貪心。

不過其它好多中國既ADR 都跌左唔少，我唸係時候留意番隻Focus Media。 FMCN 昨晚跌左 15%，相信有點 oversold，只是因為mobile advertising 要做 restructure. 跌定可以考慮買的一隻股票。

今次應該未跌完，不過最近幾日個市好反複，星期一有技術反彈之後先再跌唔出奇。

Market has turned bearish

I am saying this because I feel that the market is now much more sensitive to bad news. Just two weeks ago those kind of bad news would not have drag the market down.

The bad news right now are of course the credit crunch's worst not over, inflation in US (rate hike) and high oil price.

It may be wise to buy put if the implied vol not too high. Selling covered calls is better if imp vol is high.

中移動跌勢暫援

電訊重組+ Goldman conviction sell，中移已經跌破115。我個人覺得其實重組一早就知，唔應該有乜實際上既影響(股價上)，所以這兩個原因好有可能"用完"啦。 短期如果A股無乜事，中移應該有機會上番120.... 買股票就賺唔多架啦...短抄買個call 重好。

Correction in Chinese game stocks overdone

Just stopping service for the 3 days grief period does not warrant a 10% drop in market cap. This is just an excuse to sell after the great rally last month.

NCTY has a very result, better than consensus, like the other game stocks. The stock is up like 9% after market. I think the rally can go on. Their players are usually richer and live in cities and hence will not be affected by this earthquake. Other companies are mainly using free-to-play model, which make most data like PCU, ACU useless. The impact to them is harder to estimate.

神華值得一博

最近個市又升番，主要係美國既公司業績同零售數據都唔差。其實香港多數都係升同資源有關既估，始終E個係個 global theme. 不過我覺得市場太樂觀啦...

其實神華唔算升得多，又係龍頭，應該重有得去一排。

3 Days to grief....

Perfect World say Q2 will slowdown becuase they have to stop service for 3 days after Earthquake.... result is better than expected, but weak forecast drives the share down like 10%....
Well..... that will make a call from winning to losing.. GG

ah.... ERTS result is good, but stock goes down

WTF is happening? Even goldman say buy after the result! Only reason may be P/E too high and people do not trust the forecast. I should have stick to my thoughts earlier" long ATVI and short ERTS. I am just too greedy....

Anyways, other game stock continue to go up, like NCTY, SNDA and NTES. Up 30~40% in 1 month. Now may be too late to chase if you are not in already and you are "afriad". If you have a big risk appetite, go for it. Sell after the result if you have guts. I would prefer Snda over ntes.

地震顯視中國極多豆腐樓....

學校同醫院都咁容易成個散晒，明顯有問題。一定係偷工減料。
不過我覺得溫總次次都要身先士卒，佢身體頂唔頂得住架.....從來都無見過咁辛苦既領導人，我肯定美國一定都無。

其實應該盡快比日本派隊去救人，佢地有好多救災機械，先進好多(因為佢地成日都震)。有好幾間公司係專做E方面既野。

中國今年可謂多災多難，都唔知幾時先等到 Olympic。唔係咁睇好啦都係。

反觀我最愛既 Game 股，最近隻隻都做得好好。 Take Two, ATVI, ERTS 都做得唔錯。你只要係業績前一個week買左 call， hold 到佢公佈業績已經有好好既 return. 之後一輪就到 NCTY, SNDA, GA 同 PWRD 公佈啦。不過已經升左唔少，唔見好就收啦。

Earthquake

That's basically "the news" today. Anything related like cement, construction materials and medicine go up. I think they are not backed by fundamental at all. Cement are heavy and difficult to transport, so only the local suppliers benefit. Damage is mainly in rural area, so not much rebuilding is needed. If you want to buy I would buy the construction machineries in Japan, which has much better earnings visibility. Who knows why the hype will end? May be even intra day!!

Luckily I said to take profit on the put last week, today market is up more than expected. It will be wise to sell the call as well to reduce risk.

Internet plays are major outperformers this month, reflecting the fact that they are the least affected in an economic slowdown. Tecent (700 HK) is a good long term story, but need to wait for a pull back before I buy.

Thailand is relatively a good place to invest your money this year, as they are benefitting from the soaring rice price and the pro-business government. Thailand has underperform Asia for a long time due to political uncertainties. However, the coup is over and Thaksan is back in Thailand. Lowering of properties tax should also boast the real estate market there, listed company include Quality Houses, LPN, Land & Houses..etc

好想住屋村......

其實一直都有咁既感覺，因為我住親既地方都好無果種........地道、市井、Petit-bourgeosie 既感覺。

可能你會覺得我太養專處優，先會有此白痴既想法。我係我認，不過我個人不嬲都係有種"romantism"，係咁就係咁。 我睇左尋日份"明報"，有個標題係"學者憂全港太古城化"。 我完全明白佢講緊乜。 好似杏花邨，太古城D咁既住宅區，完全係無左一種"人"既氣味。太整齊，太實用，太現代..... 我要住屋村!!! 唔要太古城，唔要豪宅!! 唔要會所，我要既係後行同波地!!!

不過好矛盾地，我又唔鍾意好多老人家既住宅區。我要有多點活力既，好似屯門，天水圍咁。真係好矛盾 >< 點算好?

再加上頭先睇左"姨媽的後現代生活"，真係感慨良多。我今次搬上去大陸，一定要好好唸清楚住邊度。我難道都係個好後現代既人?

Surprisingly good results in Australian banks

Aussie banks are up 3~5% right now, which may reflect that their credit market is "still" ok. Austrlia has experience the longest housing bull market (15+ years) and house owners are heavily in debt (much more than USA). Let's see how this plays out, can commodity price support a "soft landing"? I do not think so, but I do not have the conviction to short.

Elsewhere in Asia, inflation is still the hot topic. Oil price is not as important in Asia as in US, but soft commodities prices are. It is very simple, you cannot eat less, but you can spend less on entertainment and housing.

I see a lot of risks for China but not much catalyst coming this year:

Export will be affected by - rising RMB, weaker US demand, high raw material price and labor cost increase (new labor law) . The effect may not be apparent in the beginning, as companies can hide it under "recievables" and "inventory". When the slower demand from US, and later from Europe (falling housing market and lowest consumer confident in years); China export must suffer a big fall.

Many people argue that domestic consumption and Asia consumption can compensate for weaker US demand. I disagree, as the goods consumed in USA is not the same as those in China/Asia. While some goods like cloths and sport shoes may be shifted to local consuption, high value added goods are not as easy: car parts, TV/mobile phone parts, goods designed for English speakers.... Furthermore, food inflation in Asia will definately affect spending of consumers, as food is a large percentage of income when compare to consumers in USA. It is precisely those "low value added goods" that can be shift to domestic demand that those people are buying. Now they need to spend more on food items and you still expect them to consumer more to compensate for US weakness? Good luck.

I can only see the very rich Chinese consume more in this high-inflationary environment. They will not need to worry about food cost. However, don't forget those richest people (bankers) are being fired by i-banks. Bear Sterns in HK just fire 90% of their HK staff (today's news). They are like the IT people in 2000, when it was the "hottest job" in town. Last few years IPO boom was very similar to the IT bubble, and attracted a lot of "smart(ass)" young "professionals". With all those big i-banks firing people, they will have a hard time finding a job, buying a new BMW and luxurious apartment may need to wait.

Yes, people spend more and invest in housing in an inflationary environment. However, do you seriously think people will invest more in housing when the inflation is in food??? This time the inflation is not in all the general goods or the luxury goods. It is mainly food and oil. I will let you answer this question yourself.

That's enough for now and enjoy more of my bearish comments next time.

If you listen to my last post and buy put or call/put 3 days ago. I think you can take profit on the put now :). I am not the greedy kind of trader, cash in my pocket is better than money in a warrant.

Philippines - oversold?

Everyone know the rice price is causing major inflation in Philippines (largest rice importer in the world), but their stock index has tumbled nearly every day for months!! I think this is oversold and some selected big caps should rebound soon, namely PLDT, SM Investment, Megaworld...etc

In HK, imp vol in the index warrants went down, but I think the market is definately not in a "stable state", meaning that buying call or put will be a good idea now. Although market have risen a lot already and buying puts seems more logical, you never know what is the next policy in China.

Don't guess the top in an up trend..

Although I have been wrong for quite sometime on the overall market movement, at least my core holdings are up more than the market, namely 1068 and 999. 1068 HK is my favourite pork play and I have wrote about it earlier.

I took a look at other food plays in China, but most have been up already like Chaoda Modern. Two US listed companies caught my eye, they are FEED and SEED. FEED just bought a number of pig farms in Southern China by issuing new shares to market. They buy the pig farms at 3 times P/E but sell their own shares at over 60 times P/E (historical). I think there is something fishy here. However, if you look at their graph, you can't really blame them for selling!

SEED is totally another story, it main business is selling their bio-engineered seeds in China. Given the recent price hike in overall food price, SEED should be able to attract investors attention soon. However, this is such a small company that not many sell side coverage is avaliable. This can be explosive, not bad for a small bet, like buying mark 6.

Financial sector result better than expected?

Saw some decent gains in US financials yesterday adn Ford unexpectedly goes to profit.
That seems to limit the downside in the short term.

Samsung Electronics is up today on the back of good results and a better than expected forecast this year. I still see more upside in Samsung. TV, mobile phones and Dram are all going better than last year in spite of US slowdown. Weak won is also helping.

China reduce stamp duty

Ok...that's why so many funds rushed into A50 ETF last few weeks. It is also real that Chinese gov will save the market when it hit 3000.

Basically everyone know what to do today: buy the laggards! Those that fall the most year to date like: 2318, 3323, 2328, 694, 338, 386, 1800, 2777, 2314, 3377...... many many

Or you can focus on insurers and brokers. like China everbright and Ping An.

May get some profit on this rally, though may not last long. I will still buy OOM puts.

I still like the shippers (dry bulk), my yesterday's vierw "sell on strength" need to be change now given the change in sentiment. I say keep them for now.

Bear market rally nearly over!!! That's my view.

Crazy... up so much!

Market now reminds me of September last year, up up and up. However the sentiment is completely different now. So far, 90% of the people I talk to are not convinced that the worse is over, so who is is bullish and buying?? But now I understand... the market is simply waiting for one big bad news, and then once it start to drop, much more will follow. They will realise Q1 result is just the sunset before the darkness come. I do not know which day it is, but I think we should buy out of money put of 3 to 6 month. For example: July HSI put at 20000 points.

116 seems to be establishing an uptrend again, I would make a small buy here, not a lot, just to get exposure.

Dry bulks (1919, 2343, 1138) are very strong recently, backed by the rising Baltic Dry Index. Earnings are out for 1919 and 1138 yesterday which are good, as expected. I see no major news in these few months and would not be too aggressive here. Sell into strength if you have a large holding. Do not chase!!

Goldman was right again, H-shares were up sicne they upgraded China. Goldman is just too XXXX accurate. You don't really need a fnd manager nowadays, you have Goldman.

I have a conviction sell today: Tibet Tourism Co., Ltd. (Public, SHA:600749). One more riot and the government may even BAN foreignors from going to Tibet. GG

Still, I think quant funds, hedge funds and ETFs are the way to go in the future. Long funds and Pension funds are ...... out dated.....

A-share rebound + US earnings positive

Market should see decent rebound this week, given the over 11% drop in A-share last week. US companys earnings are still risks for this week, but I think a-share market should rally no matter what's happening there. Government really announce policies to "save the market", may be that's the Chinese way of stock market! That's enough for a 10% rebound. Buy A50 ETF (2823 HK)? Or call? Really hard to predict the time range of this rally....

遠洋地產 (03377) have a placement from shareholder on Fri, down 6% today. It may rally with the Chinese market in the Short term? Especially with a conviction Buy from Goldman. I think it can be a speculative Buy for the short term. Fundamentally I am still negative on Chinese properties sector.

If you really want to play the Chinese Properties, why not buy the cement makers? 3323 and 1893 have corrected a lot from their high points. Unlike the properties developers, the government actually help them by shutting down the backward small cement producers. This will be a ongoing trend to make the industry more environmental friendly.

Let's not forget CCCC 1800 HK, no need to explain its business, everyone already know. Buy on weakness. I think buy a little bit everytime is the way to play this.

Nintendo up more than 5% today, seems that I am not the only one that want to "fry the earnings"!

Nintendo announce earnings next week (24 April)

News last night:
NPD data for March in the US was released showing video game software sales +63% YoY to US$0.95bn, hardware sales +46% YoY to US$0.6bn and accessories sales + 58% YoY to US$0.2bn.
Wii sold 721k, Xbox360 262k, PS3 257k, PS2 216k, Nintendo DS 697k and PSP 297k.
The biggest selling title was Smash Bros on Wii selling 2.7m, miles ahead of second placer Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas 2, which sold 0.7m.

As usual, I am probably the biggest bull in Nintendo. Nintendo has range bound for quite a while since coming down from the high point 70000 yen in Nov. I expect the result to be better than expected but forecast will be conservative as usual. I feel that the market is less bullish than the sell side analysts and hence there will be positive surprise even if the forecast of 2009 is lower than the analysts.

The main overhang in the share price is the FX rate, Nintendo has over 1 trillion yen in cash and much of that is in USD and Euro (not clear on the exact breakdown). The FX loss is not really an "expense" and will disappear as long as yen does not go too far from 100 yen/usd.
However, even factoring that in, they will still see over 50% Net Profit growth this year and next year, before slowing down to 20% in FY2010.
The president hint a new NDS coming up, but it will probably not be announcement officially until the end of Q1 (June), which is 1 quarter later than I originally expected. That will not affect earnings this year too much, as the NDS is still selling well outside of Japan.
Growth will be driven by margin expansion: form 17% net profit margin to over 32% in 2010. The reason is that the cost of making the Wii will go down and sales mix will change towards more software sales (much higher margin). [For reference: own brand software is estimated to have over 75% GP margin, for 3rd party software, around 500 yen profit per software unit.] All in all, hardware GP margin is around 30% and software (include own brand and 3rd party) is around 65%. Goldman's estimates are ridiculus, assuming the margin will stay at 17~20%.

The software sales will increase because tie ratio will be better than other consoles histroically. The main driver behind this is the number of users per household is increasing. The reason is simple: sisters and moms are now playing the Wii, and we all know women buy more often than men.

Don't forget the WiiWare, where users can buy and sell simple games online. Nintendo can sell so many old games on it with basically no cost. This is another income that was not in the price yet.

Last but not least, don't forget this news earlier this month:
LONDON, April 9 (Reuters) - More than 42 million programmes
have been watched or downloaded via the BBC's iPlayer
Internet TV catch-up service since it was fully launched on
Christmas Day, the corporation said on Wednesday.
The corporation also said it had agreed a deal to allow
Nintendo Wii users to watch BBC iPlayer programmes on
their televisions through their Nintendo consoles.

Others:

China Yurun (1068 HK): although I really like the company, it had rsien too fast and seems "toppy". Take profit now and buy back later at a price lower than 11 HKD.

U.S. Foreclosures Jump 57% as Homeowners Walk Away

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN3CfG7wYMuI&refer=home
This is the most important news today on bloomberg.

I take this as the signal of a prolong recession + hard landing in USA. I am more bear than a panda now.

NCTY only up like 6%... seems that analysts are still very skeptical on the renewal of the WoW contract with Blizzard. It's a pity that THe9 has such low bargaining power that it will be hard for them to argue for a better deal (royalties and oher fees). They need to have other successful games to be less dependant on WoW.

506 Hk, 606 HK will announce earnings tomorrow, let's see.

Buy out of money put for next month is my strategy this year: it's like buying mark 6, your chance of winning is low, but return is very big. I think the odds is actually much bigger though!

For my friend who bought Chinese property:
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.com/080415/300/2sen6.html

Down you go!

Thanks to GE, market finally see a much needed correction XD That is not the end of it, just the start of a chain reaction. I am still bearish overall. Hedge by shorting index may be a good strategy now.

Anyways, I think it is time to buy Focus Media (ADR), goldman has an update and keep target price at $66! This is a long term call though, as you may need to wait for one or two very good earning announcement before investor regain full confidence.

I also read on the newspaper this morning that China allow edible oil price hike: positive on Wilmar (singapore) and 506 HK. Should be positive for 606 also....

I do not buy into the story of Chinese banks, as many analysts say, 2008's earnings has high visibility, but you should start discounting 2009 which is extremely uncertain (risky). Do not be fooled by the result announcement this month, of course the result of last year is good. Of course the management was bullish, do not forget they are Chinese management! I nearly NEVER hear negative comments from Chinese companies. Listen to what the government say, they say they will continue to control the loan growth and contain inflation. You may think the banks are cheap compare to last year but you should look at what OTHER banks outside of China are trading at. If it's so cheap why didn't Warren Buffet buy any Chinese banks last month? I think it is not the time to buy them yet.

Just to remind myself what I think in the beginning of the year: Stocks with high cash level (less dependant on banks and credit market), high earning visibility/not related to broad economy (like Ctrip, Shanda, China Mobile, Agriculture plays) and low valuation should outperform. You should always think about that when you buy stocks this year.

Countries views: I like Thailand, Taiwan and Korea. I think India, Indonesia and China are risky.

Why: Thailand - consumer confident rebound sharply after election in last Dec, rice price increase is a major positive for the farmers. Sectors to buy: banks (proxy for overall economy), beer and other consumption plays. Real estate is slightly positive because of the reduced property tax this year, but it takes time before property market to be "heated". You cannot build a condo in a few months. Major developers see 20%~100% increase yoy in Q1 2008. Finally, Thai market is cheap and has decent dividend yield.

Taiwan: because of Mr. Ma. Well... also because of high dividend yield and improving regulatory environment. Do not chase, but buy on dips.

Korea: LG electronics and Samsung are very strong, Kia and Hyundai motor also benefit from depreciating Won. LGE is overbought now, but Samsung is not. Tech is exposed to the risk of declining US economy, but they have already started to cut back on capex last year, demand/supply situation should be relatively firm this year. Focus on valuation when you buy. Stay out of banks. For stocks in HK, I heard 903 HK is a proxy to play the flat panel TV theme, and Citi just upgraded them.....

Stock specific view: saw this news on Fri - 國資委：煤價高企，將有逾70%國有電企虧損

I am a big contrarian in this , I would still buy 902 HK. I believe government will do something to help them. You cannot pursure enviromental friendly energy policies if the majority utilities companies are losing money. Electricity tariff must increase to promote conservation of energy and coal price have to be passed on. Inflation can be controled if government do this slowly and use subsidies.


Dear all,
We just issued a press release: The9 Limited and Blizzard Entertainment® Expand Agreement to Include Rollout of World of Warcraft®: Wrath of the Lich King™ in Mainland China. Please find below the link to our release for your reference:
http://www.corp.the9.com/news/2008/news_080414.htm

Very good news!!!!! Finally!!! I have been waiting for you for so long!!

Sentiment is everything

Again, US lead the world's stock markets back to the positive side. Walmart and tech show that US economy is "still" ok. The market is now quite bullish in the short term and no major news = market goes up.

I notice Focus Media (FMCN) down a lot after revising down their forecast numbers. It is mainly a non-cash item, so the effect is mainly on investors sentiment more than a actual change in the company's value. China Mobile banning SMS (ads) is definately a bad news but that acount for 4% sales and 0% profit. As the leading outdoor advertiser in China, it deserve to trade better than this, especially in the Olympic year. That said, it lack near term catalysts to rally. My suggestion? Sell puts on weakness to take advantage of high volitility.

Walmart result quite strong, price momentum is also extremely well. I do not know if it worth to chase or not. Please leave comments if you have a view.

Goldman is pushing oil services today, which is not surprising given the oil price nowadays. However 2883 is just a neutral fro them, so we should focus on Singapore and India oil services? I am more cofident on singapore, with their appreciating currency, at least I can gain from that.

Finally down again...

I was quite bearish starting last week, but the market just keep rallying without much reason.

What to short now? Short AIRLINES!! Reason is very obvious, oil price. More than 3 US budget airlines bankrupt this month, and one in Hong Kong yesterday.

Yesterday China Yurun (1068 HK) announced earnings. This is one of my favourite stock in HK, and it did not disapoint me. The managed to keep their gross margin at 14.1% (down from 15.4%) in a high hog price environment, which is remarkable. As many analysts pointed out, Yurun is the only company in the industry that can sustain a high margin under a high hog price because of their business model. They have slaugtering facilities in many regions and can source from more pig farmers. Having an upstream business also helps. The product mix is improving, for more details I think you should go to their website. I am very bullish on it over the long term as this industry is set to consolidate (no more small pig slaughter in the wet market!) and their chilled meat products will be in high demand as more and more supermarkets are opened in China.

http://www.yurun.com.hk/shouye.htm

Short term rally over?

Market rise but I do not see much good news coming out, just very big rebound from the losers YTD. I am not convinced until I see more support on the fundamental side.

I would short the HSI for the short term..... Upside risk is the rebound of A-share market, which can be irrational. Government policy change is not likely, but if it happens, the Chinese market can rallies a LOT. However, I think China will still focus and should focus on the CPI instead of stock market. For stock idea.... not much. I suggest doing a screen of high dividend yield, Low P/E and high earnings revision.

Attached below are some graphs I find interesting:
in order of Wheat, Sugar, Crude Palm Oil, Copper and Credit Default Swap

Financials Rallies... or just short cover?

It seems that all the winners lost their momentum yesterday while losers gained back (Long Yen, commodities, Agriculture and short USD and financials). I would say it is more because of short covering than market really turning. This can go on for more than one day though, if you look at the Yen/USD level and the drop in CDS rate. Hlowever, it is too hard to say when will the rally be over.

Chow Sang Sang (116 HK)up again today but it seems overbought in ST. You may want to take profit if you are short term trader. However, I am still bullish on the stock for the whole year period.

China Agri (606 HK) should benefit on the lower international CPO (Crude Palm Oil) price. I think 4 ~ 4.4 HKD can be a good entry point. However I am not sure how long you need to wait.....

On 1138 HK, it had perform really well this year, best performer in HSCEI. The reason is that it is dry bulk, and mainly transport oil and coal. Baltic Dry Index has recovered also. I would not chase it now, but prefer 2343. I say wait now.... even for 2343.

On a side note, seems that HSBC (5 HK) and PCCW (8 HK) are very defensive in this year's market. If youy want to park your money, you may add that together with CLP.

Financial Reform in USA?

Haha, 116.HK continue to go up! Go go gold! I think it is bad idea to buy real gold now, near the $1000 level. Better play with the gold retailers in HK, which is supported by strong consumer spending growth.

HK market still risky this week, with another long weekend. Jobs data in USA will be released on Fri, so people probably won't want to risk it for the long weekend.

I still think it is a good idea to sell put on high volatility stocks/index with limited downside. I am not naming stocks here, but many of my friends think that their "facourite" stock have been down so much and is sooooo cheap now. The only problem is that we do not know when they will go up. So the best way to benefit from this is: sell a put at a stirke price that you will buy it anyways.

China Resources Power 華潤電力 (836 HK) annouced earnings, in-line with consesus . I still think it is the best out of the power utilities in China. It has the most effecient operation (25.5% OP margin) and expanding to coal mining to secure raw material. Government will continue to remove small IPP and support more efficient and environment friendly large powerplants. Electricity price cannot be freeze forever. It is already very cheap and should experience the smallest unit fuel cost increase among peers Capacity set to increase 80% by 2010. They are the best because of the excellent cost control. (Their typical powerplant with 2 units only need 100 employees, only 10% ~20% of peers. Centralize coal sourcing also help them to get better pricing without using a middleman. Debt/ Equity of 0.76 is healthy for power utility company (internal aim for 1.5 at max), with 18% in HKD and 37% fixed rate borrowings which can mitigate the risk of rate hike in China.

On other stocks.... I think 2883 is a strong buy below $10 HKD. As a oil service provider with a huge parent (CNOOC), future is bright even if oil price is volatile. Most fund managers prefer service provider than the mining/ oil companies anyways. It would be the core holding of most long funds in bull market.

Goldman upgrades China to overweight.

Finally, after nearly 5 month of underweight. Valuations looks much better now but I am sure they will downgrade again if HSCEI is up to 15000 again. I agree wtih them that China may finally outperform in the near term, but I would trade it with a "long- short" or simply option startegies like "sell put buy call" to limit the amount of capital commited in this trade.

Soft commodities rallies back faster than I expected, may be USD is simply too weak.

2343 HK seems toppy, sell now and buy back below $10.

China Life has very high imp vol, time to sell OTM puts of 1 to 3 months. Stirke price should be the price that you will buy the stock anyways, so why not earn the premium?

Selling covered calls on your holdings is also a good strategy this year, it is not likely that the market will go up a lot anyways. Do not waste your holding! Violatility is an asset!

Seems that commodities will go through correction for a while...

That price model really good ah.... predict it will go down this week....

next week is predicted to be up, so let's see!!

Look again in the Agriculture space?

Many of the agri plays fall even more than the broader market, and they deserve to outperform after the "2 conference" in Beijing given the support from government.

Tickers to look at: 38 HK, 297 HK and 1068 HK.

Internet names listed in US are also becoming much cheaper and start to show good entry points for long term investors. I like the following: SINA US, CTRP US, SNDA US. BIDU US is interesting, but still quite expensive. Wait until it get under 200, then I may buy.

Japan outperform by FAR this year, because the yen appreciated more than 10%. However you can only make money if you hold all cash in yen and not buy any stocks. Argh.....

On futures trading: What about Short HSCEI and Long HSI? This trend seems to last....

Yen at 96 now..

Technically... not much resistant until 76 ye/USD. So basically it can go anywhere now. I am quite disapoint with BOJ, doing nothing.

HK is down over 1000 points again, but I do not think this is the bottom. Everyone thinks bottom is at 20000, so the real bottom may be even below that. Short to hedge now.

Market Crash

JPY/USD at 100!!
Massive unwinding of carry trades.

FED or BOJ better do something! It's time to buy Straddles for major indexes.

A lot of bad news recently

Buy Idea:
PCCW (0008.HK): seems to have bottomed out. Telecom sector in HK remains competitive, but PCCW's main business lines are all showing OK growth. High div yield is a plus. Many fund managers are searching for stocks to "hide", this may be one of them. Smartone is also high yield, and has a lot of cash at hand, but small caps are too dangerous right now.
SNDA US: I think it will rebound for 10% in short term. Buy now and set a limit sell order.

Next much ideas today

Need some good news.... can buy some soft commodity on weakness.

Keep them on your radar:

Potash (POT US)
Wilmar (WIL SP)
Plantation plays in Malaysia and Indonesia

or the ETFs on soft commodities.

You may want to buy Nnitendo's warrant on weakness.

Mixed economic data from Japan...

1. Industrial output drop 2%, compare to concesus of less than 1% drop. This contradicts with the earlier strong GDP and export numbers (last quarter). All thouse exporters drop today along with the stronger yet and weak industrial numbers. Agian, this show that you can get nowhere with the economic numbers in Japan, it is simply a random distribution around 0.

2. I think the market may have bottomed in the short term, but will see more downside in the medium term. They drop will be driven by more and more defaults from corporates (they need to refinance eventually, and many will fail) and another round of carry trade unwind. I think it may be wise to do a "dated spread": Buy ST call and Sell LT call on the index. 1m /3m can be good.

3. Last night bought 16 HK and 386 HK in a virtual trading account, doing pretty well today :) .
today HK is very strong, start in negative, but quickly got pushed up to +300. I make no change to my view and expect HSI to finnish strongly tomorrow.

4. Goldman launched warrents for Nintendo and Sony in Hong Kong!!! Buy Buy Buy!! no brainer!

SHANDA up 13%!

1. SNDA is up 13% today after releasing earnings. So, the 3 favourites Chinese game companies I like all keep their earnings momentum. I think I really should use the delay in the announcement dates to do some option trading.... However I think it will only work if you are familiar with the fundamentals. Checking Chinese game portal everyweek is very useful.

2. I think HK is bottomed out in the short term, like I said yesterday. Stocks to buy are laggards YTD (Ping An, HKEX, China Petrol, Foxconn...). HK developer may also rebound in the short term. Buy calls!! However, I think the rebound will not be long... may be 3~10 tradings days?

3. What to Buy?
868 HK, buy now: Goldman support, management buying shares, stopped dropping
1398, Buy if drop back to 4.5 (very hard to say right now...)
7003 JP ME&S , I think it has bottomed.... very cheap compare to history, fundamentals ok
MAJOR TB Major Cineplex, Result better than estimates (EPS 1.42 vs 1.19), better sales in major segments, mainly in ticket sales. Expansion to India another positive. Rising consumer confident in Thailand is also helping.

Second Day

1. Japanese Real Estates blue chips seems oversold, although the economic outlook for Japan is OK at best, their price/NAV is not demanding, with most trading below their NAV by a wide margin. (exact number is diverse, but cap rate is betwen 3~5%). Market is extremely bearish on the real estate market and worry that land price will drop continuously.

2. On the other hand, HK developers got a kick today and seems like they can finally get a rebound. Bond insuer in US got to keep their rating and that should serve as the near term catalyst for the financial and real estate shares. *** I think HSI has bottomed out in the short term ( 3 days). China market back up today and has huge impact on HK market. I think US slowdown is pretty much priced it, only the China part is shaky. However... I expect more downside from China in the medium term ( 3 month).

3. NCTY announced earnings on Feb 21 Thur and is up 12%+ on Friday. PWRD announce on Monday Feb 22, early morning and was up 12% in the same day. Should have sell NCTY and buy PWRD on Friday, and make use of the delay in earnings announcement. They are fairy similar in terms of their target gamers and hence one's result is quite indicative of the other. Of course NCTY is booast by burning crusade, but PWRD is also going the "high-end" road with its 3D games. Anyways.... this different in announcement time created trading opportunities. The risk is not very big either as it is an intra-sector trade.

On Sony:

News flow:
1. Nikkei reported today: saying that Sony will investover ��100bn in Sharp's new Sakai facility, this is positive for both companies: Sharp: less capex, less uncertainty on over capacity. Sony: In-line with their "asset light" strategy, diversify its suppliers source, (Sony already have a JV with Samsung to make 7G and 8G LCD panels).
2. Feb 20, 2008. Sony sold one of its chip manufacturing facility to Toshiba (it makes Cell processer for PS3 and RSX graphic chips) This was announced earlier in Oct 2007, but the details was released in Feb 2008.
3. Toshiba gave up on HD-DVD, Blue-Ray will difinately win now
4. PS3 sales (both hardware and software) see significant improvement since Dec 2007, catching up with Wii in January.
¡¡
My comment:
Valuation is not demanding with P/E of 15.5 (FY1), compare both to the sector and historical valuation.
Sony's management vigorously restructure the company by selling off non-core asset ( Sony-Life, chip factory) and setting up JV with competitors to improve margins. I appraise them for their effort and believe that Sony's management is heading to the right direction. This is the core of my investment view, to buy Sony as a long term holding. A good management is a rare sight in Japan, and there are plenty researches showing that stocks with good management tend to outperfrom in the medium to long term, even in Japan.
I think Sony have gone past its worst years 2006~2007 (LCD price collapse, PS3 not selling well).
Going forward, I expect a stable LCD panel market (no more big drop in price, as suppliers have cut back on capex. at least ok for another year) Demand will slow down in the US (25% of total sales of Sony), but pricing is more driven by supply side. DRam is a good comparison.
PS3 profits should be on uptrend from now on, the bottleneck of PS3 is the lack of game titles. Analysts often missed this point, because it is usually the consumer electric analyst that cover the stock, not the game sector analyst. They think the software sales is lagging Nintendo and hence estimate minimal profit for the segment. In fact, PS3 is so high tech that most game developers need 1 year to learn how to make a good game in PS3, it had been like this for PS2, just that it is even harder to learn this time. Final Fantasy, Devil May Cry, MGS 4... they are all coming out this year, people will BUY a console just for them. You havn't even see the beginning yet. ( *** does not mean it is negative for Nintendo, they target different customers)
Risks:
Currency: FX risk will always be the biggest risk for Sony, but most of it has been priced it, Yen at 105 is not "news" anymore. They are mostly hedged (>50%).
LCD price drop: it is possible that a decline in end product price devastrate Sony's tiny margin (<5%). However, Sony had been cutting cost by making JV with competitors, management is aware of their weakness and actually doing something. (This is not common in Japan)
PS3: another price cut or delay of major titles will hurt, but I think the chance is small, given that PS3 is now only 100USD more than a Wii and blueray is THE next gen DVD. On software side, the chance that all developers delay their game at the same time is rare, and it may actually be benefitial for Sony if the major titles are not clamped into the same quarter (cannibalism of games and stable demand for hardware).

First Day of My Investment Blog

I started this blog to record what I learn and what I think about the market in general. Writing a diary on paper is one way, but it lacks the flexibility of internet.

I will try to make it more organize as time goes by, so it may be quite "chaotic" in the beginning.

1. Japan Insurance sector go up more than 7%! Just last week I heards rumours/news that they may have much larger than expected Sub-prime losses, and I thought it will not rebound anytime soon. however, today they were up after the news on US bond insurer rescue. My boss also indicate that some of the bigger Jap insurers announced decent earnings. Hmm... may be a bit of both, and because of the low P/B (lower than 1). Still not convinced as a long term holding, as there is not much growth in Japan and interest rate hike seems remote.

2. The recent trend in Japan market shows a clear outperformance of the favourites of foreign investors, like trading houses, capital goods and autos. They are low in P/E and exposed to emerging markets. Japan also outperform the region YTD, I "think" more funds will be forced to add back weight to Japan from zero/underweight. So this relative outperformance may continue for a while. However, this contradicts with what I heard from brokers, as they indicate decreasing trading volume from long funds. Outflow was also obvious in the indiscriminate sell off earlier in the year.

3. Pioneer and Sanyon Electric are leading the 1m return table with returns of 47% and 62% respectively. The crap are outperforming! Who can tell me what to do?

4. HK keep getting pressure from A-share market, lagging the whole region and the world. This may persist for another month. However I am positive on dry bulk on short term and baltic dry index should get support from the earlier than expected signing of iron ore contracts.

5. Chinese Internet sector seems holding up quite well( earnings), but their P/E are still very demanding. Better focus on stock picks.

6. Value is winning back as market stables, rationality returns. High dividend yield and low P/B are two things to keep in mind.