2008年4月3日 星期四

Short term rally over?

Market rise but I do not see much good news coming out, just very big rebound from the losers YTD. I am not convinced until I see more support on the fundamental side.

I would short the HSI for the short term..... Upside risk is the rebound of A-share market, which can be irrational. Government policy change is not likely, but if it happens, the Chinese market can rallies a LOT. However, I think China will still focus and should focus on the CPI instead of stock market. For stock idea.... not much. I suggest doing a screen of high dividend yield, Low P/E and high earnings revision.

Attached below are some graphs I find interesting:
in order of Wheat, Sugar, Crude Palm Oil, Copper and Credit Default Swap






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