Market now reminds me of September last year, up up and up. However the sentiment is completely different now. So far, 90% of the people I talk to are not convinced that the worse is over, so who is is bullish and buying?? But now I understand... the market is simply waiting for one big bad news, and then once it start to drop, much more will follow. They will realise Q1 result is just the sunset before the darkness come. I do not know which day it is, but I think we should buy out of money put of 3 to 6 month. For example: July HSI put at 20000 points.
116 seems to be establishing an uptrend again, I would make a small buy here, not a lot, just to get exposure.
Dry bulks (1919, 2343, 1138) are very strong recently, backed by the rising Baltic Dry Index. Earnings are out for 1919 and 1138 yesterday which are good, as expected. I see no major news in these few months and would not be too aggressive here. Sell into strength if you have a large holding. Do not chase!!
Goldman was right again, H-shares were up sicne they upgraded China. Goldman is just too XXXX accurate. You don't really need a fnd manager nowadays, you have Goldman.
I have a conviction sell today: Tibet Tourism Co., Ltd. (Public, SHA:600749). One more riot and the government may even BAN foreignors from going to Tibet. GG
Still, I think quant funds, hedge funds and ETFs are the way to go in the future. Long funds and Pension funds are ...... out dated.....
沒有留言:
張貼留言