Down you go!

Thanks to GE, market finally see a much needed correction XD That is not the end of it, just the start of a chain reaction. I am still bearish overall. Hedge by shorting index may be a good strategy now.

Anyways, I think it is time to buy Focus Media (ADR), goldman has an update and keep target price at $66! This is a long term call though, as you may need to wait for one or two very good earning announcement before investor regain full confidence.

I also read on the newspaper this morning that China allow edible oil price hike: positive on Wilmar (singapore) and 506 HK. Should be positive for 606 also....

I do not buy into the story of Chinese banks, as many analysts say, 2008's earnings has high visibility, but you should start discounting 2009 which is extremely uncertain (risky). Do not be fooled by the result announcement this month, of course the result of last year is good. Of course the management was bullish, do not forget they are Chinese management! I nearly NEVER hear negative comments from Chinese companies. Listen to what the government say, they say they will continue to control the loan growth and contain inflation. You may think the banks are cheap compare to last year but you should look at what OTHER banks outside of China are trading at. If it's so cheap why didn't Warren Buffet buy any Chinese banks last month? I think it is not the time to buy them yet.

Just to remind myself what I think in the beginning of the year: Stocks with high cash level (less dependant on banks and credit market), high earning visibility/not related to broad economy (like Ctrip, Shanda, China Mobile, Agriculture plays) and low valuation should outperform. You should always think about that when you buy stocks this year.

Countries views: I like Thailand, Taiwan and Korea. I think India, Indonesia and China are risky.

Why: Thailand - consumer confident rebound sharply after election in last Dec, rice price increase is a major positive for the farmers. Sectors to buy: banks (proxy for overall economy), beer and other consumption plays. Real estate is slightly positive because of the reduced property tax this year, but it takes time before property market to be "heated". You cannot build a condo in a few months. Major developers see 20%~100% increase yoy in Q1 2008. Finally, Thai market is cheap and has decent dividend yield.

Taiwan: because of Mr. Ma. Well... also because of high dividend yield and improving regulatory environment. Do not chase, but buy on dips.

Korea: LG electronics and Samsung are very strong, Kia and Hyundai motor also benefit from depreciating Won. LGE is overbought now, but Samsung is not. Tech is exposed to the risk of declining US economy, but they have already started to cut back on capex last year, demand/supply situation should be relatively firm this year. Focus on valuation when you buy. Stay out of banks. For stocks in HK, I heard 903 HK is a proxy to play the flat panel TV theme, and Citi just upgraded them.....

Stock specific view: saw this news on Fri - 國資委：煤價高企，將有逾70%國有電企虧損

I am a big contrarian in this , I would still buy 902 HK. I believe government will do something to help them. You cannot pursure enviromental friendly energy policies if the majority utilities companies are losing money. Electricity tariff must increase to promote conservation of energy and coal price have to be passed on. Inflation can be controled if government do this slowly and use subsidies.


Dear all,
We just issued a press release: The9 Limited and Blizzard Entertainment® Expand Agreement to Include Rollout of World of Warcraft®: Wrath of the Lich King™ in Mainland China. Please find below the link to our release for your reference:
http://www.corp.the9.com/news/2008/news_080414.htm

Very good news!!!!! Finally!!! I have been waiting for you for so long!!