I do not think it is smart to short now, as the trend is now upward and supported by volume. While the fundamental is not great, market will only pay attention to the good news for now. There is no point to battle Mr. market.
If you have long position, I just think you need a stop loss. Not much can be done here, but you can still chase for a short while.
Of course, there is a chance that I am just one of the last one to think this way and the rally is ending, I even question myself on my prediction to going long. There is not much confident.
.
2009年5月5日 星期二
The new trend of China online games
.
http://web.17173.com/content/2009-04-08/20090408130806701.shtml
This article sum it up quite well: the age of browser games MAY be coming. Do not mistaken the browser games now with those simple menu based mini games you saw before, so much have already changed. The browser games now are supported by beautiful graphics and large servers. They are almost like a complete PC game a few years ago.
Gaming industry in China have come a long way, the theme of MMORPG is almost saturated with numerous players in the industry with almost a new game per week. Bad games are everywhere and quality is as rare as diamond.
Getting more complex or more functions is not going to help sales, as the main target group of Chinese MMORPG are people who HATE complicated games. Added to the fact that almost all games in China (except WOW) do not charge a monthly fee, which make the development of a MMORPG a very risky attempt.
The advantage of browser games are numerous: low development cost, low timing commitment for the gamers, natural to a "free-to-pay" model and huge playability (you just need a browser).
Almost all the game companies are already making their own browser game and you may find the star tomorrow by paying close attention to the newsflow. 17173.com will be my choice for the fastest industry news and rumours. Good luck hunting.
.
http://web.17173.com/content/2009-04-08/20090408130806701.shtml
This article sum it up quite well: the age of browser games MAY be coming. Do not mistaken the browser games now with those simple menu based mini games you saw before, so much have already changed. The browser games now are supported by beautiful graphics and large servers. They are almost like a complete PC game a few years ago.
Gaming industry in China have come a long way, the theme of MMORPG is almost saturated with numerous players in the industry with almost a new game per week. Bad games are everywhere and quality is as rare as diamond.
Getting more complex or more functions is not going to help sales, as the main target group of Chinese MMORPG are people who HATE complicated games. Added to the fact that almost all games in China (except WOW) do not charge a monthly fee, which make the development of a MMORPG a very risky attempt.
The advantage of browser games are numerous: low development cost, low timing commitment for the gamers, natural to a "free-to-pay" model and huge playability (you just need a browser).
Almost all the game companies are already making their own browser game and you may find the star tomorrow by paying close attention to the newsflow. 17173.com will be my choice for the fastest industry news and rumours. Good luck hunting.
.
2009年4月28日 星期二
世衛豬流感警戒升至第四級
Confirm buy put on index!
Wait for further news of the flu.
I do not think it will have much effect on China though, China supply its on hog for over 5000 years. It is logical to assume that a place with such high demographic concentration had this kind of pig flu before. It was not a big problem and like SARS, it will pass soon (hopefully).
Wait for further news of the flu.
I do not think it will have much effect on China though, China supply its on hog for over 5000 years. It is logical to assume that a place with such high demographic concentration had this kind of pig flu before. It was not a big problem and like SARS, it will pass soon (hopefully).
2009年4月27日 星期一
豬流感 - 應該買乜?
雨潤食品 (01068.HK) : 中國第三大既"豬肉佬"公司，因豬流感消息而大跌。
http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stock/basicquote.aspx?symbol=01068
其實長遠點睇，有豬流感對佢係好事，因為咁會令人民對豬肉衛生既關注度上升，小型"豬肉佬"就會無人幫襯。 我相信中國的豬肉市場未來肯定會整合。現在3大豬肉商加埋都無10% market share，根本重有排整合。
Anyways, 今次好可能真係sell in May, go away； 睇定點，可能係buy put 既時候了!
http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stock/basicquote.aspx?symbol=01068
其實長遠點睇，有豬流感對佢係好事，因為咁會令人民對豬肉衛生既關注度上升，小型"豬肉佬"就會無人幫襯。 我相信中國的豬肉市場未來肯定會整合。現在3大豬肉商加埋都無10% market share，根本重有排整合。
Anyways, 今次好可能真係sell in May, go away； 睇定點，可能係buy put 既時候了!
2009年4月16日 星期四
2009年3月23日 星期一
Great article that details the stupidity of the mass
Mass Hysteria Over AIG Obscures Simple Truths: Michael Lewis
I am losing faith in human intelligence, more and more...
I am losing faith in human intelligence, more and more...
2009年3月6日 星期五
2009年3月5日 星期四
How to solve the housing crisis - my way
One in Five mortgage borrower is now in negative equity - meaning their even selling their house cannot pay for their borrowings. In some states (not all, many people misunderstand), once you transfer your house ownership to the lender, you will not be liable to pay the mortgage anymore.
Obviously this is not what the banks or mortgage lenders want to see, as this does not give them any cash at all! It is not easy to sell a house even at the "mark to market" price nowadays. Bush and Obama have encourage lenders to restructure their mortgage with the borrowers. Not wanting to lose their money, the lenders did as they were told, but they do it the same way that have caused the problem in the first place:
1. Delay payment now and pay back more later.
2. Lower interest rate now but higher rate later
3. A combination of 1 and 2.
Now, this type of arrangement have caused the sub prime bubble, and you expect it to solve the problem now? Have you learn anything from this crisis?
This is understandable, as people do not accept losses or failure easily. By delaying the payment, there is "hope" that it can be recovered in the future. It is the same mentality when your HSBC drop to below 50 and you think you can hold until it is 100 again.
What the lender need to do is the following:
Lender A owns a mortgage that is worth $100, but now the house is only worth $80.
Lender A sell the whole mortgage to hedge fund B (or Private equity) at $ 60.
Lender A write down the loss, Borrower now pay 40% less per month to Hedge fund B. (Reduction of principal) Borrower now only owes $60, not $100.
Government should award lenders who do this. This may cause a lot of lenders to go bankrupt, but it is the reality. Having a $100 mortgage that can never be repaid is only going to lengthen the problem. This can also help people to stay in their house and fulfill Obama's promise to help the people who are losing their houses.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aPdRXuqc58RU&refer=home
Decreasing the rate to 2% is not going to end it, only a reduction of principal can.
Let's see what they will do the next few months.
Obviously this is not what the banks or mortgage lenders want to see, as this does not give them any cash at all! It is not easy to sell a house even at the "mark to market" price nowadays. Bush and Obama have encourage lenders to restructure their mortgage with the borrowers. Not wanting to lose their money, the lenders did as they were told, but they do it the same way that have caused the problem in the first place:
1. Delay payment now and pay back more later.
2. Lower interest rate now but higher rate later
3. A combination of 1 and 2.
Now, this type of arrangement have caused the sub prime bubble, and you expect it to solve the problem now? Have you learn anything from this crisis?
This is understandable, as people do not accept losses or failure easily. By delaying the payment, there is "hope" that it can be recovered in the future. It is the same mentality when your HSBC drop to below 50 and you think you can hold until it is 100 again.
What the lender need to do is the following:
Lender A owns a mortgage that is worth $100, but now the house is only worth $80.
Lender A sell the whole mortgage to hedge fund B (or Private equity) at $ 60.
Lender A write down the loss, Borrower now pay 40% less per month to Hedge fund B. (Reduction of principal) Borrower now only owes $60, not $100.
Government should award lenders who do this. This may cause a lot of lenders to go bankrupt, but it is the reality. Having a $100 mortgage that can never be repaid is only going to lengthen the problem. This can also help people to stay in their house and fulfill Obama's promise to help the people who are losing their houses.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aPdRXuqc58RU&refer=home
Decreasing the rate to 2% is not going to end it, only a reduction of principal can.
Let's see what they will do the next few months.
2009年2月10日 星期二
Long/Short pair: Long Sohu/ Short Ctrip
This is a logical prediction, but keep in mind that stock market is not logical. So all these may be BS.
Long SOHU:
Internet portal is less affected by economic slowdown. Online advertisement is still a cheap way to promote products.
Online game division is growing and also not affected much by economy.
P/E of 10 is not demanding.
Short Ctrip:
Less flights for business, less flights for tourism = Online air ticket agent will suffer
More airlines sell online themselves, become competitors.
P/E of over 20 is excessive.
Both stocks are listed in the US, and are Chinese internet stocks, sector and market risk is thus mitigated.
Long SOHU:
Internet portal is less affected by economic slowdown. Online advertisement is still a cheap way to promote products.
Online game division is growing and also not affected much by economy.
P/E of 10 is not demanding.
Short Ctrip:
Less flights for business, less flights for tourism = Online air ticket agent will suffer
More airlines sell online themselves, become competitors.
P/E of over 20 is excessive.
Both stocks are listed in the US, and are Chinese internet stocks, sector and market risk is thus mitigated.
2008年12月11日 星期四
Absurdity?
- Why would someone buy a bond that has negative yield? (Meaning that you will lose money for sure, you need to PAY so that government will borrow from you.) I give you 100 now and you give me back 99.9 in 3 months, sounds great to me. I guess only those mutual fund that REQUIRE their fund to invest in T-bill will buy these, so much for paying rediculus management fees for them to lose money FOR SURE.
- Why is CDS (insurance protection against default) of government bonds so high when the price of the government bonds are rising so fast? People are buying at a higher price while thinking that the default risk is going higher also? Crazy! One side must be wrong... (it's quite obvious which side that is)
- Why is the stock market rising (GREED) when the bonds are showing FEAR only?
Someone please answer me :)
Leave some comments!!
2008年12月5日 星期五
Buy Puts on US Treasuries
我感覺到有Arbitrage 既機會.... 同上年股票一樣，不過唔係太識點做，有無高人可以指點下?
不過簡單D講.....又可以用 Black Swan (黑天鵝) 戰術啦
上年: 股票升到痴晒線，唔知頂係邊
今天: US Treasury 升到痴晒線，唔知頂係邊
係這個時候，Black -Scholes Option Pricing Model 就出現左好明顯既問題:
Risk is not normally distributed.
明顯，順住個勢，US Treasury 係會繼續升，因為大家重要去避險。
1) 升既機會率>跌既機會
更加明顯既，係升既時候，個波幅係細過跌既時候。因為咁升法，升到咁唔會理既水平，一跌就會好甘。
2) 升市波幅 < 跌市波幅
結論:
Buy Put every month, until it drops.
原因:
雖然我覺得升既機會係大過跌，不過你應該係買跌先正確。
就好似買馬咁，A馬有 60% 機會贏，B馬有40%機會贏。 但係，A既賠率係1.5倍，B既賠率係10倍。 係咁既時候，你當然應該係買B馬啦! 只要買多幾時，你既 Expected Return 肯定高好多。
好多師奶都係唔明E個道理所以買親窩輪都輸。
不過簡單D講.....又可以用 Black Swan (黑天鵝) 戰術啦
上年: 股票升到痴晒線，唔知頂係邊
今天: US Treasury 升到痴晒線，唔知頂係邊
係這個時候，Black -Scholes Option Pricing Model 就出現左好明顯既問題:
Risk is not normally distributed.
明顯，順住個勢，US Treasury 係會繼續升，因為大家重要去避險。
1) 升既機會率>跌既機會
更加明顯既，係升既時候，個波幅係細過跌既時候。因為咁升法，升到咁唔會理既水平，一跌就會好甘。
2) 升市波幅 < 跌市波幅
結論:
Buy Put every month, until it drops.
原因:
雖然我覺得升既機會係大過跌，不過你應該係買跌先正確。
就好似買馬咁，A馬有 60% 機會贏，B馬有40%機會贏。 但係，A既賠率係1.5倍，B既賠率係10倍。 係咁既時候，你當然應該係買B馬啦! 只要買多幾時，你既 Expected Return 肯定高好多。
好多師奶都係唔明E個道理所以買親窩輪都輸。
2008年12月4日 星期四
長線投資已死
找到個幾好既網頁
http://diary-of-investments.blogspot.com/
裡面既野係copy 番以前既一些article，我都睇過，好唔錯。
你有時間自已睇下啦，我抽重點出來算。
1.
寫果條友自已都唔信啦! 信左去買樓咁你就抵死啦! 重好啦，有樓比你跳。咁蠢無謂獻世。
2.
長線買左優質股實升
3.
印銀紙救市，經濟好快好
依個睇法我幾同意，不過我都明白政府係迫住要救既。所以大家一齊等100蚊食茶餐廳lunch既日子啦!!
4.中國加基健，谷內需好X勁?
中國經濟結構係39─37─37（部分互疊），即資本投資佔GDP 39％、內部消費佔37％、出口有關業務佔37％。美國經濟係19─70─13，內部消費佔70％。由此可見，中國擴大內需對GDP增長率影響唔大，一如 美國擴大出口對GDP影響唔大嘅理由一樣。中國未來資本投資除鐵路外，其他項目已接近飽和；出口增長率明年起亦大幅放緩，只擴大內需對明年GDP增長率影 響有幾大？
5. 美股極可能步日股後塵 by 曹仁超
1929年10月道指高點，要到1954年才打和（共二十五年）；1973年3月恒指高點要到1986年才打和（共十三年）；1990年日經見高點，十八 年後今天卻創新低。2007年10月道指及恒指高點又點睇？真係英雄被困筲箕灣，不知何日返中環。1929年道指386點，响兩年零十個月內急瀉 89.3％，然後由1932年5月嘅41.66反彈至1937年193點（即反彈前跌幅56％），然後一直牛皮到第二次世界大戰結束，美股才重新出現大牛 市【圖一】。至今道指跌咗一年，跌幅不足50％，係咪應該入市博？木宰羊。
1997年7月我地炒爆咗香港房地產，2000年我地炒爆咗科網股，2007年10月全球股市地產資源皆炒爆……。邊個知下次抄咩就發達啦 XD
不過當然，所以野都唔好輕易相信!! 例如果個所謂"雷曼首代CDO設計者黃元山"，就好明顯唔係設計果個啦，我聽聞佢係Sales，你覺得sales會唔會真係設計者 ? 重要首代?
Be skeptical!
http://diary-of-investments.blogspot.com/
裡面既野係copy 番以前既一些article，我都睇過，好唔錯。
你有時間自已睇下啦，我抽重點出來算。
1.
假設樓市不跌成大錯 (by 黃元山)
投行之間興起將次按打包CDO的時候，黃元山剛調職往英國倫敦的雷曼兄弟工作，亦有接觸相關產品，「要知道美國樓 巿那時候從未跌過價，所以即使是次按， 其還款率都很高，都能夠被評為AAA級，並不是垃圾。當時整個巿場都認為美國樓巿是最穩定的工具，已經commonly perceived（普遍認知）它是不會跌的。現在回想當然覺得任何東西都沒有不跌的可能，但當時大家的而且確是這樣認知，故此包裝產品的行為便變得很 sensible（合情理）。」
香港大把人以為樓係一定升既，又話乜土地有很，供應少，人又多，中國人鍾意買樓.. bull shit!寫果條友自已都唔信啦! 信左去買樓咁你就抵死啦! 重好啦，有樓比你跳。咁蠢無謂獻世。
2.
長線買左優質股實升
「長線投資的好處是，你不會高買低賣，但只適用于大牛巿 的時候，縱使有ups and downs，但股巿整體向上，當然OK。但這種投資方法only works in a secular bull market！（只適用于百年大牛市）而現在則是大熊巿，是超級大熊巿，那是我父母輩也沒有見過的，Secular Bear Market（百年大熊市）裡面，長線投資並不可行！」
黃元山舉例，當1929年美國步入大蕭條時，股巿狂瀉，如果信奉長線投資法入巿，要一直等到五十年代，股巿才回升至當時的水位，「你系咪真系等到咁耐？」
以日本為例，若投資者于八十年代開始購買當地股票，則時至今日，日本股巿的股值仍未達到八十年代股價高峰期的一半。簡單而言，所謂的長線投資已不再是三、五年可以回本，有可能高達20年，甚而30年。
我唔知有無百年大熊市，不過我知道從來無野係實升既。如果你覺得有，你極大可能係唔識乜野係風險，以為自已好X勁。不過如果你重有上年買既股票，你要有心理準確佢一世都唔會番家鄉啦。 因為世界經濟結構已經改變左，例如銀行已經永久地失去左好多ibank 同 derivative 既收入，唔會番來架啦。 記住唔好 fall in love with 你既股票，因為love...係盲既。 你同你情人盲就夠啦，唔洗盲多次呀嘛!!3.
印銀紙救市，經濟好快好
「當經濟回複增長以後，你就會發現，幹嗎世界上有這麼多銀紙？」原來各國現時不斷複印貨幣，用以挽救這場金融海嘯，是要付出沉重代價的。無限印製終會帶來惡果，就是出現惡性通脹這個最壞的時刻。
惡性通脹以往只在新興巿場例如阿根廷和南美洲發生過，從未有人想過，惡性通脹一樣可以在發展國家出現，甚至在全球同時出現，「屆時情況會非常惡劣，美 金、港幣、人民幣都幫不上忙了。你唯一是買金保值，還要是實金，一條條的。」依個睇法我幾同意，不過我都明白政府係迫住要救既。所以大家一齊等100蚊食茶餐廳lunch既日子啦!!
4.中國加基健，谷內需好X勁?
中國經濟結構係39─37─37（部分互疊），即資本投資佔GDP 39％、內部消費佔37％、出口有關業務佔37％。美國經濟係19─70─13，內部消費佔70％。由此可見，中國擴大內需對GDP增長率影響唔大，一如 美國擴大出口對GDP影響唔大嘅理由一樣。中國未來資本投資除鐵路外，其他項目已接近飽和；出口增長率明年起亦大幅放緩，只擴大內需對明年GDP增長率影 響有幾大？
5. 美股極可能步日股後塵 by 曹仁超
1929年10月道指高點，要到1954年才打和（共二十五年）；1973年3月恒指高點要到1986年才打和（共十三年）；1990年日經見高點，十八 年後今天卻創新低。2007年10月道指及恒指高點又點睇？真係英雄被困筲箕灣，不知何日返中環。1929年道指386點，响兩年零十個月內急瀉 89.3％，然後由1932年5月嘅41.66反彈至1937年193點（即反彈前跌幅56％），然後一直牛皮到第二次世界大戰結束，美股才重新出現大牛 市【圖一】。至今道指跌咗一年，跌幅不足50％，係咪應該入市博？木宰羊。
1997年7月我地炒爆咗香港房地產，2000年我地炒爆咗科網股，2007年10月全球股市地產資源皆炒爆……。邊個知下次抄咩就發達啦 XD
不過當然，所以野都唔好輕易相信!! 例如果個所謂"雷曼首代CDO設計者黃元山"，就好明顯唔係設計果個啦，我聽聞佢係Sales，你覺得sales會唔會真係設計者 ? 重要首代?
Be skeptical!
買樓投資!?
識我既人都知我完全唔讚成買樓係一種好既投資方法。買樓可以當投資重可以養老只係迷信!
講簡單D，樓只係高風險 ，低回報的一種資產。你買得唔好隨時變左負擔，唔係資產。
高風險:
低回報:
請不要再迷信，不要人講就信，不要做野唔經大腦。
如果你咁鍾意買樓，你就買房地產信託基金(REITS)啦，雖然都唔係咁好架啦:
例如 : 陽光房地產基金
http://www.sunlightreit.com/chi/index.htm
市價 = 1.38
雖然佢只係有 2、3流既商廈同商陽，不過根據佢既2008 Annual Report，佢淨資產有3.41。 P/B 得 0.4。 即係市場已經當佢既大廈會跌 6成。 (我唸無咁多掛，本來都唔係1線既場啦，雖然以前個價可能有水份)
最勁係佢派 0.242 HKD 既股息，你現在買有 17% 息。 (有用財技先咁高，不過唔計佢都有12%，不過應該唔會咁快無既)
即係就算佢一半既鋪位租唔出你都重有8% 息。
不過小心的我，唔會咁就買既。我根本唔覺得香港樓時會升番，可能一世都唔會。
不過你都要小心，香港既Reits都有"啊媽"既。果D啊媽好無良心，今年隻 2778 冠君產業信託 就係啊媽度高價接左橦"朗豪坊"番來，真係欲哭無淚..... btw，高價=125億元，搞到要集資。
你都有去過朗豪坊，你覺得佢係咪值125 億呢? 見人見智啦。
講簡單D，樓只係高風險 ，低回報的一種資產。你買得唔好隨時變左負擔，唔係資產。
高風險:
- 低流通量 (你最需要錢果時，就係經濟差，無成交果時，死未)
- 借錢好危險的，好多人都唔明白做mortgage 同抄孖展係一樣既.....
- 一跌就跌得好快，重要係成交弱果時
- 個P任銀行改，佢加到100%你都要比
- 租比人好快用到間屋殘
- 比人知道你既財富有幾多
- 天災人禍，可能連樓都無埋 (得罪人可能比人燒屋，但係燒唔到你股票同存款掛)
低回報:
- 絕大多數跑輸股市
- 絕大多數跑輸地產股
- 好有可能跑輸定期
- 好多費用要交 (差響，地租，管理費，大廈維修費，保險等....) [又麻煩又晒時間]
- 回報要扣好多費用，除左上面果d，重有離印費，律師費，佣，雜費......(2 次，買同賣都要)
請不要再迷信，不要人講就信，不要做野唔經大腦。
如果你咁鍾意買樓，你就買房地產信託基金(REITS)啦，雖然都唔係咁好架啦:
例如 : 陽光房地產基金
http://www.sunlightreit.com/chi/index.htm
市價 = 1.38
雖然佢只係有 2、3流既商廈同商陽，不過根據佢既2008 Annual Report，佢淨資產有3.41。 P/B 得 0.4。 即係市場已經當佢既大廈會跌 6成。 (我唸無咁多掛，本來都唔係1線既場啦，雖然以前個價可能有水份)
最勁係佢派 0.242 HKD 既股息，你現在買有 17% 息。 (有用財技先咁高，不過唔計佢都有12%，不過應該唔會咁快無既)
即係就算佢一半既鋪位租唔出你都重有8% 息。
不過小心的我，唔會咁就買既。我根本唔覺得香港樓時會升番，可能一世都唔會。
不過你都要小心，香港既Reits都有"啊媽"既。果D啊媽好無良心，今年隻 2778 冠君產業信託 就係啊媽度高價接左橦"朗豪坊"番來，真係欲哭無淚..... btw，高價=125億元，搞到要集資。
你都有去過朗豪坊，你覺得佢係咪值125 億呢? 見人見智啦。
2008年11月14日 星期五
Looking Back......
My US account since 01 March 2007.... (no...I did not trade before I left my job ga, just virtual trading la :) )
So far performance is ...... +29.3% If I use asset value now over total capital invested.
If I invest everything in the beginning, I will have +60.6% return.
I dunno if that's good or not la.... at least I did not lose money this year....
I did some analysis myself:
I think I behave more like a hedge fund... my performance is not really correlate to the market...
So far performance is ...... +29.3% If I use asset value now over total capital invested.
If I invest everything in the beginning, I will have +60.6% return.
I dunno if that's good or not la.... at least I did not lose money this year....
I did some analysis myself:
| Month | Darkwind's Performance | Hang Seng Index Performance |
| Mar-07 | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| Apr-07 | 21.4% | 2.6% |
| May-07 | 29.5% | 1.6% |
| Jun-07 | 2.1% | 5.5% |
| Jul-07 | 15.5% | 6.5% |
| Aug-07 | -16.6% | 3.4% |
| Sep-07 | 0.7% | 13.2% |
| Oct-07 | 8.5% | 15.5% |
| Nov-07 | -4.8% | -8.6% |
| Dec-07 | -1.7% | -2.9% |
| Jan-08 | 0.2% | -15.7% |
| Feb-08 | 14.3% | 3.7% |
| Mar-08 | -5.0% | -6.1% |
| Apr-08 | -7.1% | 12.7% |
| May-08 | 5.3% | -4.7% |
| Jun-08 | 4.6% | -9.9% |
| Jul-08 | -3.9% | 2.8% |
| Aug-08 | 4.4% | -6.5% |
| Sep-08 | -10.7% | -15.3% |
| Oct-08 | -12.7% | -22.5% |
| Nov-08 | 17.5% | -5.3% |
| Total Return | 60.6% | -32.7% |
| Standard Deviation | 11.7% | 9.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 5.2 | -3.3 |
I think I behave more like a hedge fund... my performance is not really correlate to the market...
Predictions on Properties & Commodities
Properties:
Global properties are going down, worst in UK and Aus... They are way too leveraged before, even more so than USA. Now they will see years of declining to come.
HK is no much better, although the newspaper may tell you we are much healthier financially than 1997.
My prediction for 2008: HK property price down 20%, with very low volume.
Reasons: HK people are less leverage this time and most medium to low price flats are mortgaged at a affordable level. Those high end are doomed, as they rise too much and the real demand: rich bankers and overseas workers, are declining fast.
However, due to the fact that people are less leveraged this time, flat owners will NOT be willing to sell their flat at a much lower price. The buyer, on the other hand, expect the price to go down further.
End result: Very low volume, as sellers unwilling to lower price, buyers no want to buy yet. Transaction prices will lack indicative power, and difference between transactions will be great, as some sellers who need cash quickly will accept huge discounts.
Commodities:
This time is "different" !?
Well, that is a very common sentence in the finance world. However, I do think the recession this time is different from the previous few recessions. In the recession in 1991, 1997, 2001, only one sector was collapsing. This time, it is the banks that are collapsing, which affect everyone's pocket.
Let me explain in more detail:
Mines, oil wells, corn field... all need financing to start. The world have basically stopped to finance large projects like that, which means we will not se new gold mines, new iron mines or oil wells in the near future...
Adding to that, all countries are printing money now, which will come back to haunt us when economy finally bottoms. With no new supplies and demand coming back, all those new money will add inflationary pressure to commodities.
I am not saying commodities will rise any time soon, but this problem will be a drag for the recovering phase after this recession. so I expect this bear market will continue much longer than what most people are expecting...
Global properties are going down, worst in UK and Aus... They are way too leveraged before, even more so than USA. Now they will see years of declining to come.
HK is no much better, although the newspaper may tell you we are much healthier financially than 1997.
My prediction for 2008: HK property price down 20%, with very low volume.
Reasons: HK people are less leverage this time and most medium to low price flats are mortgaged at a affordable level. Those high end are doomed, as they rise too much and the real demand: rich bankers and overseas workers, are declining fast.
However, due to the fact that people are less leveraged this time, flat owners will NOT be willing to sell their flat at a much lower price. The buyer, on the other hand, expect the price to go down further.
End result: Very low volume, as sellers unwilling to lower price, buyers no want to buy yet. Transaction prices will lack indicative power, and difference between transactions will be great, as some sellers who need cash quickly will accept huge discounts.
Commodities:
This time is "different" !?
Well, that is a very common sentence in the finance world. However, I do think the recession this time is different from the previous few recessions. In the recession in 1991, 1997, 2001, only one sector was collapsing. This time, it is the banks that are collapsing, which affect everyone's pocket.
Let me explain in more detail:
Mines, oil wells, corn field... all need financing to start. The world have basically stopped to finance large projects like that, which means we will not se new gold mines, new iron mines or oil wells in the near future...
Adding to that, all countries are printing money now, which will come back to haunt us when economy finally bottoms. With no new supplies and demand coming back, all those new money will add inflationary pressure to commodities.
I am not saying commodities will rise any time soon, but this problem will be a drag for the recovering phase after this recession. so I expect this bear market will continue much longer than what most people are expecting...
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)
