2008年6月27日 星期五

The defensive Pork Chop!

I was so so so so so wrong yesterday and luckily I did not buy with real money. "Never guess the bottom" is so true.

Anyways, I notice that 1068 HK, the pork producer is extremely defensive in the current market. The support seems so strong that it feels like someone is buying on dips constantly. May be just random, or may be pork price have already increased ahead of time, no more surprises.

I am still bearish overall, and I do not see the end f bear market these 2 years. High inflation globally ---> all central banks increase interest rates ---> global properties price drop


In addition, lots of layoff is happening now in US will cause much better trouble later. Export from Asia will see a second round of contraction with a MUCH higher input price though (look at iron ore and oil price). Natural disasters are adding oil to fire and reduce food/raw material supply further and create even more social unrest. I really do not see much hope yet....

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