2008年6月26日 星期四

Fed Rate, economy and the market

To be honest, I still do not see clear relationship between them, in the real world (not in textbook).

Fed keep rate unchanged yesterday and US market was basically flat. This "no-change" was highly expected, as there is not much the fed can do when they do not have a clue where economy is going!

I am quite skeptic on the effectiveness of the fed rate, but the central banks seems to believe it is the best tool to "fix the economy" like a caveman believing that his rain dance can really bring rain.

After all, interest rate is just borrowing cost, there are just so many other things, more important things, that can alter the economy. I am convinced that too many people and too much time is spent on analysis the "next move of the fed". " Go to sichuan to help people if you have time do do XXX", just like the people say.

Anyways! I do believe people love to use the fed as an excuse to buy and sell stocks, so I "think" we find a temporary bottom and market should go up till the end of the week (I am 70% confident). Mind you, I may change my mine if oil go thru $140 or inflation of some countries goes thru the roof!!

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