2008年11月13日 星期四

Pricing in Christmas

Bailout plans, stimulus plans, relief Plans, infrastructure development plans.....

We see so many plans in the news these few month, on top of the bankruptcy news that are filling the headlines. The market bound a bit and analyst/commenters change their tone accordingly. The next few days, market is down again.

Its like having a stomachache, it is very painful and you have to shit non-stop. Eating an energy bar every now and then may let you feel better, but things are still leaking below and you are not out of the shit room yet. Only when you have shit all the dirty, toxic "food" you ate, and your intestines calm down, you can wipe your ass and go back to work.

Sorry for this smelly example, I apologize for my lack of imagination, but this is the closest metaphor I can think of in the last 5 minutes.

So... how does this relate to pricing in Christmas? Well, its the same idea, imagine celebrating christmas with your pants of and busy shitting. Must be fun huh?

All those actions and plans just mean we are in for the worst Christmas economically for the last 70 years. You can't really spend when you already pay over $1 trillion for Thanksgiving.

I do not see what the Bush government can do before he say byebye. Still a bear, I see no exit yet. Don't talk about de-coupling with me before you study atomic physics 101. :)

Finally, let's look at the graph of Japan's Nikkei 225 and HK's Hang Seng Index:
We are still in 1991!! Without the financial bubble, imagine what will happen to stock price and housing price!! Depreciate over the next 20 years??

沒有留言: