2008年5月13日 星期二

Earthquake

That's basically "the news" today. Anything related like cement, construction materials and medicine go up. I think they are not backed by fundamental at all. Cement are heavy and difficult to transport, so only the local suppliers benefit. Damage is mainly in rural area, so not much rebuilding is needed. If you want to buy I would buy the construction machineries in Japan, which has much better earnings visibility. Who knows why the hype will end? May be even intra day!!

Luckily I said to take profit on the put last week, today market is up more than expected. It will be wise to sell the call as well to reduce risk.

Internet plays are major outperformers this month, reflecting the fact that they are the least affected in an economic slowdown. Tecent (700 HK) is a good long term story, but need to wait for a pull back before I buy.

Thailand is relatively a good place to invest your money this year, as they are benefitting from the soaring rice price and the pro-business government. Thailand has underperform Asia for a long time due to political uncertainties. However, the coup is over and Thaksan is back in Thailand. Lowering of properties tax should also boast the real estate market there, listed company include Quality Houses, LPN, Land & Houses..etc

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