Saw some decent gains in US financials yesterday adn Ford unexpectedly goes to profit.
That seems to limit the downside in the short term.
Samsung Electronics is up today on the back of good results and a better than expected forecast this year. I still see more upside in Samsung. TV, mobile phones and Dram are all going better than last year in spite of US slowdown. Weak won is also helping.
2008年4月25日 星期五
2008年4月24日 星期四
China reduce stamp duty
Ok...that's why so many funds rushed into A50 ETF last few weeks. It is also real that Chinese gov will save the market when it hit 3000.
Basically everyone know what to do today: buy the laggards! Those that fall the most year to date like: 2318, 3323, 2328, 694, 338, 386, 1800, 2777, 2314, 3377...... many many
Or you can focus on insurers and brokers. like China everbright and Ping An.
May get some profit on this rally, though may not last long. I will still buy OOM puts.
I still like the shippers (dry bulk), my yesterday's vierw "sell on strength" need to be change now given the change in sentiment. I say keep them for now.
Bear market rally nearly over!!! That's my view.
Basically everyone know what to do today: buy the laggards! Those that fall the most year to date like: 2318, 3323, 2328, 694, 338, 386, 1800, 2777, 2314, 3377...... many many
Or you can focus on insurers and brokers. like China everbright and Ping An.
May get some profit on this rally, though may not last long. I will still buy OOM puts.
I still like the shippers (dry bulk), my yesterday's vierw "sell on strength" need to be change now given the change in sentiment. I say keep them for now.
Bear market rally nearly over!!! That's my view.
2008年4月23日 星期三
Crazy... up so much!
Market now reminds me of September last year, up up and up. However the sentiment is completely different now. So far, 90% of the people I talk to are not convinced that the worse is over, so who is is bullish and buying?? But now I understand... the market is simply waiting for one big bad news, and then once it start to drop, much more will follow. They will realise Q1 result is just the sunset before the darkness come. I do not know which day it is, but I think we should buy out of money put of 3 to 6 month. For example: July HSI put at 20000 points.
116 seems to be establishing an uptrend again, I would make a small buy here, not a lot, just to get exposure.
Dry bulks (1919, 2343, 1138) are very strong recently, backed by the rising Baltic Dry Index. Earnings are out for 1919 and 1138 yesterday which are good, as expected. I see no major news in these few months and would not be too aggressive here. Sell into strength if you have a large holding. Do not chase!!
Goldman was right again, H-shares were up sicne they upgraded China. Goldman is just too XXXX accurate. You don't really need a fnd manager nowadays, you have Goldman.
I have a conviction sell today: Tibet Tourism Co., Ltd. (Public, SHA:600749). One more riot and the government may even BAN foreignors from going to Tibet. GG
Still, I think quant funds, hedge funds and ETFs are the way to go in the future. Long funds and Pension funds are ...... out dated.....
116 seems to be establishing an uptrend again, I would make a small buy here, not a lot, just to get exposure.
Dry bulks (1919, 2343, 1138) are very strong recently, backed by the rising Baltic Dry Index. Earnings are out for 1919 and 1138 yesterday which are good, as expected. I see no major news in these few months and would not be too aggressive here. Sell into strength if you have a large holding. Do not chase!!
Goldman was right again, H-shares were up sicne they upgraded China. Goldman is just too XXXX accurate. You don't really need a fnd manager nowadays, you have Goldman.
I have a conviction sell today: Tibet Tourism Co., Ltd. (Public, SHA:600749). One more riot and the government may even BAN foreignors from going to Tibet. GG
Still, I think quant funds, hedge funds and ETFs are the way to go in the future. Long funds and Pension funds are ...... out dated.....
2008年4月21日 星期一
A-share rebound + US earnings positive
Market should see decent rebound this week, given the over 11% drop in A-share last week. US companys earnings are still risks for this week, but I think a-share market should rally no matter what's happening there. Government really announce policies to "save the market", may be that's the Chinese way of stock market! That's enough for a 10% rebound. Buy A50 ETF (2823 HK)? Or call? Really hard to predict the time range of this rally....
遠洋地產 (03377) have a placement from shareholder on Fri, down 6% today. It may rally with the Chinese market in the Short term? Especially with a conviction Buy from Goldman. I think it can be a speculative Buy for the short term. Fundamentally I am still negative on Chinese properties sector.
If you really want to play the Chinese Properties, why not buy the cement makers? 3323 and 1893 have corrected a lot from their high points. Unlike the properties developers, the government actually help them by shutting down the backward small cement producers. This will be a ongoing trend to make the industry more environmental friendly.
Let's not forget CCCC 1800 HK, no need to explain its business, everyone already know. Buy on weakness. I think buy a little bit everytime is the way to play this.
Nintendo up more than 5% today, seems that I am not the only one that want to "fry the earnings"!
遠洋地產 (03377) have a placement from shareholder on Fri, down 6% today. It may rally with the Chinese market in the Short term? Especially with a conviction Buy from Goldman. I think it can be a speculative Buy for the short term. Fundamentally I am still negative on Chinese properties sector.
If you really want to play the Chinese Properties, why not buy the cement makers? 3323 and 1893 have corrected a lot from their high points. Unlike the properties developers, the government actually help them by shutting down the backward small cement producers. This will be a ongoing trend to make the industry more environmental friendly.
Let's not forget CCCC 1800 HK, no need to explain its business, everyone already know. Buy on weakness. I think buy a little bit everytime is the way to play this.
Nintendo up more than 5% today, seems that I am not the only one that want to "fry the earnings"!
2008年4月18日 星期五
Nintendo announce earnings next week (24 April)
News last night:
NPD data for March in the US was released showing video game software sales +63% YoY to US$0.95bn, hardware sales +46% YoY to US$0.6bn and accessories sales + 58% YoY to US$0.2bn.
Wii sold 721k, Xbox360 262k, PS3 257k, PS2 216k, Nintendo DS 697k and PSP 297k.
The biggest selling title was Smash Bros on Wii selling 2.7m, miles ahead of second placer Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas 2, which sold 0.7m.
As usual, I am probably the biggest bull in Nintendo. Nintendo has range bound for quite a while since coming down from the high point 70000 yen in Nov. I expect the result to be better than expected but forecast will be conservative as usual. I feel that the market is less bullish than the sell side analysts and hence there will be positive surprise even if the forecast of 2009 is lower than the analysts.
The main overhang in the share price is the FX rate, Nintendo has over 1 trillion yen in cash and much of that is in USD and Euro (not clear on the exact breakdown). The FX loss is not really an "expense" and will disappear as long as yen does not go too far from 100 yen/usd.
However, even factoring that in, they will still see over 50% Net Profit growth this year and next year, before slowing down to 20% in FY2010.
The president hint a new NDS coming up, but it will probably not be announcement officially until the end of Q1 (June), which is 1 quarter later than I originally expected. That will not affect earnings this year too much, as the NDS is still selling well outside of Japan.
Growth will be driven by margin expansion: form 17% net profit margin to over 32% in 2010. The reason is that the cost of making the Wii will go down and sales mix will change towards more software sales (much higher margin). [For reference: own brand software is estimated to have over 75% GP margin, for 3rd party software, around 500 yen profit per software unit.] All in all, hardware GP margin is around 30% and software (include own brand and 3rd party) is around 65%. Goldman's estimates are ridiculus, assuming the margin will stay at 17~20%.
Last but not least, don't forget this news earlier this month:
LONDON, April 9 (Reuters) - More than 42 million programmes
have been watched or downloaded via the BBC's iPlayer
Internet TV catch-up service since it was fully launched on
Christmas Day, the corporation said on Wednesday.
The corporation also said it had agreed a deal to allow
Nintendo Wii users to watch BBC iPlayer programmes on
their televisions through their Nintendo consoles.
NPD data for March in the US was released showing video game software sales +63% YoY to US$0.95bn, hardware sales +46% YoY to US$0.6bn and accessories sales + 58% YoY to US$0.2bn.
Wii sold 721k, Xbox360 262k, PS3 257k, PS2 216k, Nintendo DS 697k and PSP 297k.
The biggest selling title was Smash Bros on Wii selling 2.7m, miles ahead of second placer Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas 2, which sold 0.7m.
As usual, I am probably the biggest bull in Nintendo. Nintendo has range bound for quite a while since coming down from the high point 70000 yen in Nov. I expect the result to be better than expected but forecast will be conservative as usual. I feel that the market is less bullish than the sell side analysts and hence there will be positive surprise even if the forecast of 2009 is lower than the analysts.
The main overhang in the share price is the FX rate, Nintendo has over 1 trillion yen in cash and much of that is in USD and Euro (not clear on the exact breakdown). The FX loss is not really an "expense" and will disappear as long as yen does not go too far from 100 yen/usd.
However, even factoring that in, they will still see over 50% Net Profit growth this year and next year, before slowing down to 20% in FY2010.
The president hint a new NDS coming up, but it will probably not be announcement officially until the end of Q1 (June), which is 1 quarter later than I originally expected. That will not affect earnings this year too much, as the NDS is still selling well outside of Japan.
Growth will be driven by margin expansion: form 17% net profit margin to over 32% in 2010. The reason is that the cost of making the Wii will go down and sales mix will change towards more software sales (much higher margin). [For reference: own brand software is estimated to have over 75% GP margin, for 3rd party software, around 500 yen profit per software unit.] All in all, hardware GP margin is around 30% and software (include own brand and 3rd party) is around 65%. Goldman's estimates are ridiculus, assuming the margin will stay at 17~20%.
The software sales will increase because tie ratio will be better than other consoles histroically. The main driver behind this is the number of users per household is increasing. The reason is simple: sisters and moms are now playing the Wii, and we all know women buy more often than men.
Don't forget the WiiWare, where users can buy and sell simple games online. Nintendo can sell so many old games on it with basically no cost. This is another income that was not in the price yet.
Last but not least, don't forget this news earlier this month:
LONDON, April 9 (Reuters) - More than 42 million programmes
have been watched or downloaded via the BBC's iPlayer
Internet TV catch-up service since it was fully launched on
Christmas Day, the corporation said on Wednesday.
The corporation also said it had agreed a deal to allow
Nintendo Wii users to watch BBC iPlayer programmes on
their televisions through their Nintendo consoles.
Others:
China Yurun (1068 HK): although I really like the company, it had rsien too fast and seems "toppy". Take profit now and buy back later at a price lower than 11 HKD.
2008年4月15日 星期二
U.S. Foreclosures Jump 57% as Homeowners Walk Away
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN3CfG7wYMuI&refer=home
This is the most important news today on bloomberg.
I take this as the signal of a prolong recession + hard landing in USA. I am more bear than a panda now.
NCTY only up like 6%... seems that analysts are still very skeptical on the renewal of the WoW contract with Blizzard. It's a pity that THe9 has such low bargaining power that it will be hard for them to argue for a better deal (royalties and oher fees). They need to have other successful games to be less dependant on WoW.
506 Hk, 606 HK will announce earnings tomorrow, let's see.
Buy out of money put for next month is my strategy this year: it's like buying mark 6, your chance of winning is low, but return is very big. I think the odds is actually much bigger though!
For my friend who bought Chinese property:
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.com/080415/300/2sen6.html
This is the most important news today on bloomberg.
I take this as the signal of a prolong recession + hard landing in USA. I am more bear than a panda now.
NCTY only up like 6%... seems that analysts are still very skeptical on the renewal of the WoW contract with Blizzard. It's a pity that THe9 has such low bargaining power that it will be hard for them to argue for a better deal (royalties and oher fees). They need to have other successful games to be less dependant on WoW.
506 Hk, 606 HK will announce earnings tomorrow, let's see.
Buy out of money put for next month is my strategy this year: it's like buying mark 6, your chance of winning is low, but return is very big. I think the odds is actually much bigger though!
For my friend who bought Chinese property:
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.com/080415/300/2sen6.html
2008年4月14日 星期一
Down you go!
Thanks to GE, market finally see a much needed correction XD That is not the end of it, just the start of a chain reaction. I am still bearish overall. Hedge by shorting index may be a good strategy now.
Anyways, I think it is time to buy Focus Media (ADR), goldman has an update and keep target price at $66! This is a long term call though, as you may need to wait for one or two very good earning announcement before investor regain full confidence.
I also read on the newspaper this morning that China allow edible oil price hike: positive on Wilmar (singapore) and 506 HK. Should be positive for 606 also....
I do not buy into the story of Chinese banks, as many analysts say, 2008's earnings has high visibility, but you should start discounting 2009 which is extremely uncertain (risky). Do not be fooled by the result announcement this month, of course the result of last year is good. Of course the management was bullish, do not forget they are Chinese management! I nearly NEVER hear negative comments from Chinese companies. Listen to what the government say, they say they will continue to control the loan growth and contain inflation. You may think the banks are cheap compare to last year but you should look at what OTHER banks outside of China are trading at. If it's so cheap why didn't Warren Buffet buy any Chinese banks last month? I think it is not the time to buy them yet.
Just to remind myself what I think in the beginning of the year: Stocks with high cash level (less dependant on banks and credit market), high earning visibility/not related to broad economy (like Ctrip, Shanda, China Mobile, Agriculture plays) and low valuation should outperform. You should always think about that when you buy stocks this year.
Countries views: I like Thailand, Taiwan and Korea. I think India, Indonesia and China are risky.
Why: Thailand - consumer confident rebound sharply after election in last Dec, rice price increase is a major positive for the farmers. Sectors to buy: banks (proxy for overall economy), beer and other consumption plays. Real estate is slightly positive because of the reduced property tax this year, but it takes time before property market to be "heated". You cannot build a condo in a few months. Major developers see 20%~100% increase yoy in Q1 2008. Finally, Thai market is cheap and has decent dividend yield.
Taiwan: because of Mr. Ma. Well... also because of high dividend yield and improving regulatory environment. Do not chase, but buy on dips.
Korea: LG electronics and Samsung are very strong, Kia and Hyundai motor also benefit from depreciating Won. LGE is overbought now, but Samsung is not. Tech is exposed to the risk of declining US economy, but they have already started to cut back on capex last year, demand/supply situation should be relatively firm this year. Focus on valuation when you buy. Stay out of banks. For stocks in HK, I heard 903 HK is a proxy to play the flat panel TV theme, and Citi just upgraded them.....
Stock specific view: saw this news on Fri - 國資委：煤價高企，將有逾70%國有電企虧損
I am a big contrarian in this , I would still buy 902 HK. I believe government will do something to help them. You cannot pursure enviromental friendly energy policies if the majority utilities companies are losing money. Electricity tariff must increase to promote conservation of energy and coal price have to be passed on. Inflation can be controled if government do this slowly and use subsidies.
Dear all,
We just issued a press release: The9 Limited and Blizzard Entertainment® Expand Agreement to Include Rollout of World of Warcraft®: Wrath of the Lich King™ in Mainland China. Please find below the link to our release for your reference:
http://www.corp.the9.com/news/2008/news_080414.htm
Very good news!!!!! Finally!!! I have been waiting for you for so long!!
Anyways, I think it is time to buy Focus Media (ADR), goldman has an update and keep target price at $66! This is a long term call though, as you may need to wait for one or two very good earning announcement before investor regain full confidence.
I also read on the newspaper this morning that China allow edible oil price hike: positive on Wilmar (singapore) and 506 HK. Should be positive for 606 also....
I do not buy into the story of Chinese banks, as many analysts say, 2008's earnings has high visibility, but you should start discounting 2009 which is extremely uncertain (risky). Do not be fooled by the result announcement this month, of course the result of last year is good. Of course the management was bullish, do not forget they are Chinese management! I nearly NEVER hear negative comments from Chinese companies. Listen to what the government say, they say they will continue to control the loan growth and contain inflation. You may think the banks are cheap compare to last year but you should look at what OTHER banks outside of China are trading at. If it's so cheap why didn't Warren Buffet buy any Chinese banks last month? I think it is not the time to buy them yet.
Just to remind myself what I think in the beginning of the year: Stocks with high cash level (less dependant on banks and credit market), high earning visibility/not related to broad economy (like Ctrip, Shanda, China Mobile, Agriculture plays) and low valuation should outperform. You should always think about that when you buy stocks this year.
Countries views: I like Thailand, Taiwan and Korea. I think India, Indonesia and China are risky.
Why: Thailand - consumer confident rebound sharply after election in last Dec, rice price increase is a major positive for the farmers. Sectors to buy: banks (proxy for overall economy), beer and other consumption plays. Real estate is slightly positive because of the reduced property tax this year, but it takes time before property market to be "heated". You cannot build a condo in a few months. Major developers see 20%~100% increase yoy in Q1 2008. Finally, Thai market is cheap and has decent dividend yield.
Taiwan: because of Mr. Ma. Well... also because of high dividend yield and improving regulatory environment. Do not chase, but buy on dips.
Korea: LG electronics and Samsung are very strong, Kia and Hyundai motor also benefit from depreciating Won. LGE is overbought now, but Samsung is not. Tech is exposed to the risk of declining US economy, but they have already started to cut back on capex last year, demand/supply situation should be relatively firm this year. Focus on valuation when you buy. Stay out of banks. For stocks in HK, I heard 903 HK is a proxy to play the flat panel TV theme, and Citi just upgraded them.....
Stock specific view: saw this news on Fri - 國資委：煤價高企，將有逾70%國有電企虧損
I am a big contrarian in this , I would still buy 902 HK. I believe government will do something to help them. You cannot pursure enviromental friendly energy policies if the majority utilities companies are losing money. Electricity tariff must increase to promote conservation of energy and coal price have to be passed on. Inflation can be controled if government do this slowly and use subsidies.
Dear all,
We just issued a press release: The9 Limited and Blizzard Entertainment® Expand Agreement to Include Rollout of World of Warcraft®: Wrath of the Lich King™ in Mainland China. Please find below the link to our release for your reference:
http://www.corp.the9.com/news/2008/news_080414.htm
Very good news!!!!! Finally!!! I have been waiting for you for so long!!
2008年4月11日 星期五
Sentiment is everything
Again, US lead the world's stock markets back to the positive side. Walmart and tech show that US economy is "still" ok. The market is now quite bullish in the short term and no major news = market goes up.
I notice Focus Media (FMCN) down a lot after revising down their forecast numbers. It is mainly a non-cash item, so the effect is mainly on investors sentiment more than a actual change in the company's value. China Mobile banning SMS (ads) is definately a bad news but that acount for 4% sales and 0% profit. As the leading outdoor advertiser in China, it deserve to trade better than this, especially in the Olympic year. That said, it lack near term catalysts to rally. My suggestion? Sell puts on weakness to take advantage of high volitility.
Walmart result quite strong, price momentum is also extremely well. I do not know if it worth to chase or not. Please leave comments if you have a view.
Goldman is pushing oil services today, which is not surprising given the oil price nowadays. However 2883 is just a neutral fro them, so we should focus on Singapore and India oil services? I am more cofident on singapore, with their appreciating currency, at least I can gain from that.
I notice Focus Media (FMCN) down a lot after revising down their forecast numbers. It is mainly a non-cash item, so the effect is mainly on investors sentiment more than a actual change in the company's value. China Mobile banning SMS (ads) is definately a bad news but that acount for 4% sales and 0% profit. As the leading outdoor advertiser in China, it deserve to trade better than this, especially in the Olympic year. That said, it lack near term catalysts to rally. My suggestion? Sell puts on weakness to take advantage of high volitility.
Walmart result quite strong, price momentum is also extremely well. I do not know if it worth to chase or not. Please leave comments if you have a view.
Goldman is pushing oil services today, which is not surprising given the oil price nowadays. However 2883 is just a neutral fro them, so we should focus on Singapore and India oil services? I am more cofident on singapore, with their appreciating currency, at least I can gain from that.
2008年4月10日 星期四
Finally down again...
I was quite bearish starting last week, but the market just keep rallying without much reason.
What to short now? Short AIRLINES!! Reason is very obvious, oil price. More than 3 US budget airlines bankrupt this month, and one in Hong Kong yesterday.
Yesterday China Yurun (1068 HK) announced earnings. This is one of my favourite stock in HK, and it did not disapoint me. The managed to keep their gross margin at 14.1% (down from 15.4%) in a high hog price environment, which is remarkable. As many analysts pointed out, Yurun is the only company in the industry that can sustain a high margin under a high hog price because of their business model. They have slaugtering facilities in many regions and can source from more pig farmers. Having an upstream business also helps. The product mix is improving, for more details I think you should go to their website. I am very bullish on it over the long term as this industry is set to consolidate (no more small pig slaughter in the wet market!) and their chilled meat products will be in high demand as more and more supermarkets are opened in China.
http://www.yurun.com.hk/shouye.htm
What to short now? Short AIRLINES!! Reason is very obvious, oil price. More than 3 US budget airlines bankrupt this month, and one in Hong Kong yesterday.
Yesterday China Yurun (1068 HK) announced earnings. This is one of my favourite stock in HK, and it did not disapoint me. The managed to keep their gross margin at 14.1% (down from 15.4%) in a high hog price environment, which is remarkable. As many analysts pointed out, Yurun is the only company in the industry that can sustain a high margin under a high hog price because of their business model. They have slaugtering facilities in many regions and can source from more pig farmers. Having an upstream business also helps. The product mix is improving, for more details I think you should go to their website. I am very bullish on it over the long term as this industry is set to consolidate (no more small pig slaughter in the wet market!) and their chilled meat products will be in high demand as more and more supermarkets are opened in China.
http://www.yurun.com.hk/shouye.htm
2008年4月3日 星期四
Short term rally over?
Market rise but I do not see much good news coming out, just very big rebound from the losers YTD. I am not convinced until I see more support on the fundamental side.
I would short the HSI for the short term..... Upside risk is the rebound of A-share market, which can be irrational. Government policy change is not likely, but if it happens, the Chinese market can rallies a LOT. However, I think China will still focus and should focus on the CPI instead of stock market. For stock idea.... not much. I suggest doing a screen of high dividend yield, Low P/E and high earnings revision.
Attached below are some graphs I find interesting:
in order of Wheat, Sugar, Crude Palm Oil, Copper and Credit Default Swap
I would short the HSI for the short term..... Upside risk is the rebound of A-share market, which can be irrational. Government policy change is not likely, but if it happens, the Chinese market can rallies a LOT. However, I think China will still focus and should focus on the CPI instead of stock market. For stock idea.... not much. I suggest doing a screen of high dividend yield, Low P/E and high earnings revision.
Attached below are some graphs I find interesting:
in order of Wheat, Sugar, Crude Palm Oil, Copper and Credit Default Swap
2008年4月2日 星期三
Financials Rallies... or just short cover?
It seems that all the winners lost their momentum yesterday while losers gained back (Long Yen, commodities, Agriculture and short USD and financials). I would say it is more because of short covering than market really turning. This can go on for more than one day though, if you look at the Yen/USD level and the drop in CDS rate. Hlowever, it is too hard to say when will the rally be over.
Chow Sang Sang (116 HK)up again today but it seems overbought in ST. You may want to take profit if you are short term trader. However, I am still bullish on the stock for the whole year period.
China Agri (606 HK) should benefit on the lower international CPO (Crude Palm Oil) price. I think 4 ~ 4.4 HKD can be a good entry point. However I am not sure how long you need to wait.....
On 1138 HK, it had perform really well this year, best performer in HSCEI. The reason is that it is dry bulk, and mainly transport oil and coal. Baltic Dry Index has recovered also. I would not chase it now, but prefer 2343. I say wait now.... even for 2343.
On a side note, seems that HSBC (5 HK) and PCCW (8 HK) are very defensive in this year's market. If youy want to park your money, you may add that together with CLP.
Chow Sang Sang (116 HK)up again today but it seems overbought in ST. You may want to take profit if you are short term trader. However, I am still bullish on the stock for the whole year period.
China Agri (606 HK) should benefit on the lower international CPO (Crude Palm Oil) price. I think 4 ~ 4.4 HKD can be a good entry point. However I am not sure how long you need to wait.....
On 1138 HK, it had perform really well this year, best performer in HSCEI. The reason is that it is dry bulk, and mainly transport oil and coal. Baltic Dry Index has recovered also. I would not chase it now, but prefer 2343. I say wait now.... even for 2343.
On a side note, seems that HSBC (5 HK) and PCCW (8 HK) are very defensive in this year's market. If youy want to park your money, you may add that together with CLP.
2008年4月1日 星期二
Financial Reform in USA?
Haha, 116.HK continue to go up! Go go gold! I think it is bad idea to buy real gold now, near the $1000 level. Better play with the gold retailers in HK, which is supported by strong consumer spending growth.
HK market still risky this week, with another long weekend. Jobs data in USA will be released on Fri, so people probably won't want to risk it for the long weekend.
I still think it is a good idea to sell put on high volatility stocks/index with limited downside. I am not naming stocks here, but many of my friends think that their "facourite" stock have been down so much and is sooooo cheap now. The only problem is that we do not know when they will go up. So the best way to benefit from this is: sell a put at a stirke price that you will buy it anyways.
China Resources Power 華潤電力 (836 HK) annouced earnings, in-line with consesus . I still think it is the best out of the power utilities in China. It has the most effecient operation (25.5% OP margin) and expanding to coal mining to secure raw material. Government will continue to remove small IPP and support more efficient and environment friendly large powerplants. Electricity price cannot be freeze forever. It is already very cheap and should experience the smallest unit fuel cost increase among peers Capacity set to increase 80% by 2010. They are the best because of the excellent cost control. (Their typical powerplant with 2 units only need 100 employees, only 10% ~20% of peers. Centralize coal sourcing also help them to get better pricing without using a middleman. Debt/ Equity of 0.76 is healthy for power utility company (internal aim for 1.5 at max), with 18% in HKD and 37% fixed rate borrowings which can mitigate the risk of rate hike in China.
On other stocks.... I think 2883 is a strong buy below $10 HKD. As a oil service provider with a huge parent (CNOOC), future is bright even if oil price is volatile. Most fund managers prefer service provider than the mining/ oil companies anyways. It would be the core holding of most long funds in bull market.
HK market still risky this week, with another long weekend. Jobs data in USA will be released on Fri, so people probably won't want to risk it for the long weekend.
I still think it is a good idea to sell put on high volatility stocks/index with limited downside. I am not naming stocks here, but many of my friends think that their "facourite" stock have been down so much and is sooooo cheap now. The only problem is that we do not know when they will go up. So the best way to benefit from this is: sell a put at a stirke price that you will buy it anyways.
China Resources Power 華潤電力 (836 HK) annouced earnings, in-line with consesus . I still think it is the best out of the power utilities in China. It has the most effecient operation (25.5% OP margin) and expanding to coal mining to secure raw material. Government will continue to remove small IPP and support more efficient and environment friendly large powerplants. Electricity price cannot be freeze forever. It is already very cheap and should experience the smallest unit fuel cost increase among peers Capacity set to increase 80% by 2010. They are the best because of the excellent cost control. (Their typical powerplant with 2 units only need 100 employees, only 10% ~20% of peers. Centralize coal sourcing also help them to get better pricing without using a middleman. Debt/ Equity of 0.76 is healthy for power utility company (internal aim for 1.5 at max), with 18% in HKD and 37% fixed rate borrowings which can mitigate the risk of rate hike in China.
On other stocks.... I think 2883 is a strong buy below $10 HKD. As a oil service provider with a huge parent (CNOOC), future is bright even if oil price is volatile. Most fund managers prefer service provider than the mining/ oil companies anyways. It would be the core holding of most long funds in bull market.
訂閱：
意見 (Atom)
