每天主人都會餵豬，久而久之，豬就認為牠只要開口，就有食物送到。有一天主人走了，牠仍然每天張開口，以為有食物是理所當然。
以前發生過升市，和以後有沒有升市，沒有肯定的關系。盲目相信所謂的價值投資，睇長線，害人不淺。分批放錢入股海，也有可能是越買越跌，越來越傷。
其實公司根本沒有真正的價值，例如一個有70%機會將100元給你的機會，有人肯用70元買，有人根本50元也不會給。公司賺錢的機會更是沒人知道。
就算有所謂公司價值，市場不是高估就是底估，根本不能反映在股價上。你不見上2年間間公司都被高估，現在就一文不值? 什麼時候反映過所謂的真正價值?
迷信真是害人不淺。
2009年2月25日 星期三
Hopeless Japan
Today I see another reason of the weak yen:
"Japan’s exports plunged 45.7 percent in January from a year earlier" - www.Bloomberg.com
That how bad it it. 45.7% drop, over 50% for exports to USA.
With old population, negative population growth, you cannot rely on domestic spending.
"The government has been unable to pass a stimulus package that could help encourage domestic spending in the absence of export demand. Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling to get approval from the opposition-led upper house to spend 10 trillion yen to aid companies and households, whose sentiment is near a record low."
They cannot even pass a package to save the economy, and this is the election year with means nothing can be passed until the election. Even longer if you have a change of governing party.
Every end seems like a dead end for Japan. RIP.
"Japan’s exports plunged 45.7 percent in January from a year earlier" - www.Bloomberg.com
That how bad it it. 45.7% drop, over 50% for exports to USA.
With old population, negative population growth, you cannot rely on domestic spending.
"The government has been unable to pass a stimulus package that could help encourage domestic spending in the absence of export demand. Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling to get approval from the opposition-led upper house to spend 10 trillion yen to aid companies and households, whose sentiment is near a record low."
They cannot even pass a package to save the economy, and this is the election year with means nothing can be passed until the election. Even longer if you have a change of governing party.
Every end seems like a dead end for Japan. RIP.
2009年2月24日 星期二
Yen Trend and global depression
Seems that the yen trend has changed.
Careful if you still have yen. I have warned you!
Yen usually go up when stock market go down, however this trend is no longer true this week. Global markets are down but yen also go down at the same time.
People may have realize the problem in Japan economy may be even bigger than the US economy. After all, Japan is extremely export oriented and domestic consumption cannot be boost. (Think selling new products to 60+ years olds.)
Things are getting worst by the hour, more and more people lose their jobs, less and less people can afford to spend. We are going into a long long recession without an exit. Last time Hitler helped the world out of depression, we may not be that "lucky" this time.
Careful if you still have yen. I have warned you!
Yen usually go up when stock market go down, however this trend is no longer true this week. Global markets are down but yen also go down at the same time.
People may have realize the problem in Japan economy may be even bigger than the US economy. After all, Japan is extremely export oriented and domestic consumption cannot be boost. (Think selling new products to 60+ years olds.)
Things are getting worst by the hour, more and more people lose their jobs, less and less people can afford to spend. We are going into a long long recession without an exit. Last time Hitler helped the world out of depression, we may not be that "lucky" this time.
2009年2月18日 星期三
知道與相信 Knowing and Believing
太多人以為自已"知道"一樣野，其實只係"相信"。 如此態度，平時可能唔會覺得有問題，但係當個個都係咁，社會就會退步。
舉下例:
新聞同政府都話有"溫室效應"，你可能都有以此理由去叫人環保d。 但你有無"知道"地球最近溫度上升左幾多? 定係你聽人講得好似好有道理你就信? (雖然我都叫做信，但我同時相信有誇張既成份。)
早餐是一天最重要既一餐，食左全日精神d? 又係好多人講，無人求証。 其實中學都學過，胃消化一樣野要好耐，少則3~4個鐘，多則要半日。就算食左你都要好耐先吸收晒啦。同埋你消化系統間中都要休息下的。(不過早晨對經濟好緊要，所以相信你仍然會見到好多話"早餐最重要"既講法。)
食XXX對身體各方面和健康都有幫助。或食XXX對身體某促進方面發展。
最常聽到既DHA奶粉，我就唔係好信啦，你啊媽生得你蠢，你食幾多DHA都無用啦! 其實極有可能是身體是需要DHA，但係唔代表你食多左會聰明左，相信現代人既營養已經足夠。你要記得，人地牛頓同愛因思坦都無食DHA奶粉的!
其它果d，例如靈芝、綠藻、蜂蜜、大量中成藥，印度神油、其它油...... 其實係咪真係有用? 就算賣比你果個都唔知。
千奇唔好覺得: 食左無害咪得囉!
你咁做就係比錢生產商去騙更多人的錢，直接令更多人被騙。更甚就是你既錢本來可以用作嚴謹既科學研究，找到真正改善人健康的方法，但係你浪費左去"假貨"度。你重可能會因此落地獄。
再想想如果連人類主要既食品牛奶都可以出咁多事，"健康食品"咁次要既食品制作會唔會更安全?
你看鋼鐵講買量、原材料出口量、XXXX數據，可以知道未來N個月經濟。
你看到動物四處逃跑，可以知道未來N日會有地震。
(可能重附有圖表 + 理論)
只有幾次數據，根本唔可能有結論。
每次經濟出現問題，原因唔一定一樣。2000年之前都無原材料價格大變。
如果次次見到動物四處跑你就要防備地震，咁你年年都好唔得閒，重煩過月經。
因果關系唔係咁就証明到，你相信既未必係事實。人類好鍾意係無pattern 裡面想象一個 pattern出來，就好似Technical Analysis咁。 你講幾多理論都好，好多野無關系就無關系，有關系都未必係你所想既關系。
以前既人以為太陽圍繞地球轉，都講到好有道理，重可以話"每日都見到太陽升起，肯定無錯啦！" 同樣道理，Aztec每日都要殺一個獸士，要獻上人的心臟太陽先會升起。佢地都覺得每日太陽升起就係獻心臟有用既証據。 你覺得XXX，就會 YYY，你係知道定相信呢?
你係咪果種會講: 做乜諗咁多，開心咪得囉。 諗咁多做咩喎。
(未見過? No worries, TVB晚晚都有人演這種人。)
Fxxk! 聽到都想打佢! 我會同佢講:你唔死都無用啦。
世界上好多人都係咁，諗起都傷心。其它地方唔敢講，不過香港真係好多這種反智既人。我"相信"與香港教育制度有極大關系。基本上，作為香港學生你根本唔需要，學校都唔鼓勵你去求証你學既野。
"人講我就背，唔好問"已經變左主流。 其實咁根本唔係學習，因為你都唔知係咪聽緊錯既資料。越學越反智，其實係咪去左勞改?
舉下例:
新聞同政府都話有"溫室效應"，你可能都有以此理由去叫人環保d。 但你有無"知道"地球最近溫度上升左幾多? 定係你聽人講得好似好有道理你就信? (雖然我都叫做信，但我同時相信有誇張既成份。)
早餐是一天最重要既一餐，食左全日精神d? 又係好多人講，無人求証。 其實中學都學過，胃消化一樣野要好耐，少則3~4個鐘，多則要半日。就算食左你都要好耐先吸收晒啦。同埋你消化系統間中都要休息下的。(不過早晨對經濟好緊要，所以相信你仍然會見到好多話"早餐最重要"既講法。)
食XXX對身體各方面和健康都有幫助。或食XXX對身體某促進方面發展。
最常聽到既DHA奶粉，我就唔係好信啦，你啊媽生得你蠢，你食幾多DHA都無用啦! 其實極有可能是身體是需要DHA，但係唔代表你食多左會聰明左，相信現代人既營養已經足夠。你要記得，人地牛頓同愛因思坦都無食DHA奶粉的!
其它果d，例如靈芝、綠藻、蜂蜜、大量中成藥，印度神油、其它油...... 其實係咪真係有用? 就算賣比你果個都唔知。
千奇唔好覺得: 食左無害咪得囉!
你咁做就係比錢生產商去騙更多人的錢，直接令更多人被騙。更甚就是你既錢本來可以用作嚴謹既科學研究，找到真正改善人健康的方法，但係你浪費左去"假貨"度。你重可能會因此落地獄。
再想想如果連人類主要既食品牛奶都可以出咁多事，"健康食品"咁次要既食品制作會唔會更安全?
你看鋼鐵講買量、原材料出口量、XXXX數據，可以知道未來N個月經濟。
你看到動物四處逃跑，可以知道未來N日會有地震。
(可能重附有圖表 + 理論)
只有幾次數據，根本唔可能有結論。
每次經濟出現問題，原因唔一定一樣。2000年之前都無原材料價格大變。
如果次次見到動物四處跑你就要防備地震，咁你年年都好唔得閒，重煩過月經。
因果關系唔係咁就証明到，你相信既未必係事實。人類好鍾意係無pattern 裡面想象一個 pattern出來，就好似Technical Analysis咁。 你講幾多理論都好，好多野無關系就無關系，有關系都未必係你所想既關系。
以前既人以為太陽圍繞地球轉，都講到好有道理，重可以話"每日都見到太陽升起，肯定無錯啦！" 同樣道理，Aztec每日都要殺一個獸士，要獻上人的心臟太陽先會升起。佢地都覺得每日太陽升起就係獻心臟有用既証據。 你覺得XXX，就會 YYY，你係知道定相信呢?
你係咪果種會講: 做乜諗咁多，開心咪得囉。 諗咁多做咩喎。
(未見過? No worries, TVB晚晚都有人演這種人。)
Fxxk! 聽到都想打佢! 我會同佢講:你唔死都無用啦。
世界上好多人都係咁，諗起都傷心。其它地方唔敢講，不過香港真係好多這種反智既人。我"相信"與香港教育制度有極大關系。基本上，作為香港學生你根本唔需要，學校都唔鼓勵你去求証你學既野。
"人講我就背，唔好問"已經變左主流。 其實咁根本唔係學習，因為你都唔知係咪聽緊錯既資料。越學越反智，其實係咪去左勞改?
2009年2月10日 星期二
Long/Short pair: Long Sohu/ Short Ctrip
This is a logical prediction, but keep in mind that stock market is not logical. So all these may be BS.
Long SOHU:
Internet portal is less affected by economic slowdown. Online advertisement is still a cheap way to promote products.
Online game division is growing and also not affected much by economy.
P/E of 10 is not demanding.
Short Ctrip:
Less flights for business, less flights for tourism = Online air ticket agent will suffer
More airlines sell online themselves, become competitors.
P/E of over 20 is excessive.
Both stocks are listed in the US, and are Chinese internet stocks, sector and market risk is thus mitigated.
Long SOHU:
Internet portal is less affected by economic slowdown. Online advertisement is still a cheap way to promote products.
Online game division is growing and also not affected much by economy.
P/E of 10 is not demanding.
Short Ctrip:
Less flights for business, less flights for tourism = Online air ticket agent will suffer
More airlines sell online themselves, become competitors.
P/E of over 20 is excessive.
Both stocks are listed in the US, and are Chinese internet stocks, sector and market risk is thus mitigated.
2009年2月2日 星期一
In the end...it doesn't even matter.....
ABN Amro Has Held Talks With RBS on Buying Back Assets: FT Link
After all the hard work, all the money and all the time spent on breaking up ABN AMRO, they are now putting it back together. What can you say? OTL
Another good example to show you: luck is everything (well, almost...) in finance and trading, what you did for research and preparation do not even matter.
Just like Napoleon said, "In politics, stupidity is not a handicap." Now we found out it is also not a handicap in finance too.
Human are so..... evil.....
Madoff Victims Suspected a Crime, Just Didn't Care: Ann Woolner
After all the hard work, all the money and all the time spent on breaking up ABN AMRO, they are now putting it back together. What can you say? OTL
Another good example to show you: luck is everything (well, almost...) in finance and trading, what you did for research and preparation do not even matter.
Just like Napoleon said, "In politics, stupidity is not a handicap." Now we found out it is also not a handicap in finance too.
Human are so..... evil.....
Madoff Victims Suspected a Crime, Just Didn't Care: Ann Woolner
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