But my call expired already!!
Waiting.... for chance to come up.
Not much good idea these few days.
2008年6月30日 星期一
2008年6月27日 星期五
The defensive Pork Chop!
I was so so so so so wrong yesterday and luckily I did not buy with real money. "Never guess the bottom" is so true.
Anyways, I notice that 1068 HK, the pork producer is extremely defensive in the current market. The support seems so strong that it feels like someone is buying on dips constantly. May be just random, or may be pork price have already increased ahead of time, no more surprises.
I am still bearish overall, and I do not see the end f bear market these 2 years. High inflation globally ---> all central banks increase interest rates ---> global properties price drop
In addition, lots of layoff is happening now in US will cause much better trouble later. Export from Asia will see a second round of contraction with a MUCH higher input price though (look at iron ore and oil price). Natural disasters are adding oil to fire and reduce food/raw material supply further and create even more social unrest. I really do not see much hope yet....
Anyways, I notice that 1068 HK, the pork producer is extremely defensive in the current market. The support seems so strong that it feels like someone is buying on dips constantly. May be just random, or may be pork price have already increased ahead of time, no more surprises.
I am still bearish overall, and I do not see the end f bear market these 2 years. High inflation globally ---> all central banks increase interest rates ---> global properties price drop
In addition, lots of layoff is happening now in US will cause much better trouble later. Export from Asia will see a second round of contraction with a MUCH higher input price though (look at iron ore and oil price). Natural disasters are adding oil to fire and reduce food/raw material supply further and create even more social unrest. I really do not see much hope yet....
2008年6月26日 星期四
Fed Rate, economy and the market
To be honest, I still do not see clear relationship between them, in the real world (not in textbook).
Fed keep rate unchanged yesterday and US market was basically flat. This "no-change" was highly expected, as there is not much the fed can do when they do not have a clue where economy is going!
I am quite skeptic on the effectiveness of the fed rate, but the central banks seems to believe it is the best tool to "fix the economy" like a caveman believing that his rain dance can really bring rain.
After all, interest rate is just borrowing cost, there are just so many other things, more important things, that can alter the economy. I am convinced that too many people and too much time is spent on analysis the "next move of the fed". " Go to sichuan to help people if you have time do do XXX", just like the people say.
Anyways! I do believe people love to use the fed as an excuse to buy and sell stocks, so I "think" we find a temporary bottom and market should go up till the end of the week (I am 70% confident). Mind you, I may change my mine if oil go thru $140 or inflation of some countries goes thru the roof!!
Fed keep rate unchanged yesterday and US market was basically flat. This "no-change" was highly expected, as there is not much the fed can do when they do not have a clue where economy is going!
I am quite skeptic on the effectiveness of the fed rate, but the central banks seems to believe it is the best tool to "fix the economy" like a caveman believing that his rain dance can really bring rain.
After all, interest rate is just borrowing cost, there are just so many other things, more important things, that can alter the economy. I am convinced that too many people and too much time is spent on analysis the "next move of the fed". " Go to sichuan to help people if you have time do do XXX", just like the people say.
Anyways! I do believe people love to use the fed as an excuse to buy and sell stocks, so I "think" we find a temporary bottom and market should go up till the end of the week (I am 70% confident). Mind you, I may change my mine if oil go thru $140 or inflation of some countries goes thru the roof!!
2008年6月13日 星期五
Crazy Market
Baltic Dry Index dropped 8.7% yesterday, so everyone expected the shipping companies to drop today.
However, the actual drop is not making any sense!
However, the actual drop is not making any sense!
1138-HK 中海發展 21.30 -6.78%
1919-HK 中國遠洋 17.96 -8.55%
2343-HK 太平洋航運 10.88 -1.98%
2866-HK 中海集運 3.130 -4.28%
316-HK 東方海外 43.20 -0.23%
2343 is PURE dry bulk, only drop 2%, 1138 is oil tankers, not dry bulk, but it drop 6.8%!
1919 is like 70% dry bulk, but drop 8.5%.... 2866 is containers....
How to play ah.....
2008年6月7日 星期六
Dow down nearly 400 points
雖然無short 到期指，不過我 cover 番隻Citigroup put. 訓學之前已經 賣左.....點知訓緊果時佢重跌多左。 不過算啦，唔好貪心。
不過其它好多中國既ADR 都跌左唔少，我唸係時候留意番隻Focus Media。 FMCN 昨晚跌左 15%，相信有點 oversold，只是因為mobile advertising 要做 restructure. 跌定可以考慮買的一隻股票。
今次應該未跌完，不過最近幾日個市好反複，星期一有技術反彈之後先再跌唔出奇。
不過其它好多中國既ADR 都跌左唔少，我唸係時候留意番隻Focus Media。 FMCN 昨晚跌左 15%，相信有點 oversold，只是因為mobile advertising 要做 restructure. 跌定可以考慮買的一隻股票。
今次應該未跌完，不過最近幾日個市好反複，星期一有技術反彈之後先再跌唔出奇。
2008年6月5日 星期四
Market has turned bearish
I am saying this because I feel that the market is now much more sensitive to bad news. Just two weeks ago those kind of bad news would not have drag the market down.
The bad news right now are of course the credit crunch's worst not over, inflation in US (rate hike) and high oil price.
It may be wise to buy put if the implied vol not too high. Selling covered calls is better if imp vol is high.
The bad news right now are of course the credit crunch's worst not over, inflation in US (rate hike) and high oil price.
It may be wise to buy put if the implied vol not too high. Selling covered calls is better if imp vol is high.
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