2008年5月29日 星期四
2008年5月20日 星期二
Correction in Chinese game stocks overdone
Just stopping service for the 3 days grief period does not warrant a 10% drop in market cap. This is just an excuse to sell after the great rally last month.
NCTY has a very result, better than consensus, like the other game stocks. The stock is up like 9% after market. I think the rally can go on. Their players are usually richer and live in cities and hence will not be affected by this earthquake. Other companies are mainly using free-to-play model, which make most data like PCU, ACU useless. The impact to them is harder to estimate.
NCTY has a very result, better than consensus, like the other game stocks. The stock is up like 9% after market. I think the rally can go on. Their players are usually richer and live in cities and hence will not be affected by this earthquake. Other companies are mainly using free-to-play model, which make most data like PCU, ACU useless. The impact to them is harder to estimate.
3 Days to grief....
Perfect World say Q2 will slowdown becuase they have to stop service for 3 days after Earthquake.... result is better than expected, but weak forecast drives the share down like 10%....
Well..... that will make a call from winning to losing.. GG
Well..... that will make a call from winning to losing.. GG
2008年5月14日 星期三
ah.... ERTS result is good, but stock goes down
WTF is happening? Even goldman say buy after the result! Only reason may be P/E too high and people do not trust the forecast. I should have stick to my thoughts earlier" long ATVI and short ERTS. I am just too greedy....
Anyways, other game stock continue to go up, like NCTY, SNDA and NTES. Up 30~40% in 1 month. Now may be too late to chase if you are not in already and you are "afriad". If you have a big risk appetite, go for it. Sell after the result if you have guts. I would prefer Snda over ntes.
Anyways, other game stock continue to go up, like NCTY, SNDA and NTES. Up 30~40% in 1 month. Now may be too late to chase if you are not in already and you are "afriad". If you have a big risk appetite, go for it. Sell after the result if you have guts. I would prefer Snda over ntes.
地震顯視中國極多豆腐樓....
學校同醫院都咁容易成個散晒，明顯有問題。一定係偷工減料。
不過我覺得溫總次次都要身先士卒，佢身體頂唔頂得住架.....從來都無見過咁辛苦既領導人，我肯定美國一定都無。
其實應該盡快比日本派隊去救人，佢地有好多救災機械，先進好多(因為佢地成日都震)。有好幾間公司係專做E方面既野。
中國今年可謂多災多難，都唔知幾時先等到 Olympic。唔係咁睇好啦都係。
反觀我最愛既 Game 股，最近隻隻都做得好好。 Take Two, ATVI, ERTS 都做得唔錯。你只要係業績前一個week買左 call， hold 到佢公佈業績已經有好好既 return. 之後一輪就到 NCTY, SNDA, GA 同 PWRD 公佈啦。不過已經升左唔少，唔見好就收啦。
不過我覺得溫總次次都要身先士卒，佢身體頂唔頂得住架.....從來都無見過咁辛苦既領導人，我肯定美國一定都無。
其實應該盡快比日本派隊去救人，佢地有好多救災機械，先進好多(因為佢地成日都震)。有好幾間公司係專做E方面既野。
中國今年可謂多災多難，都唔知幾時先等到 Olympic。唔係咁睇好啦都係。
反觀我最愛既 Game 股，最近隻隻都做得好好。 Take Two, ATVI, ERTS 都做得唔錯。你只要係業績前一個week買左 call， hold 到佢公佈業績已經有好好既 return. 之後一輪就到 NCTY, SNDA, GA 同 PWRD 公佈啦。不過已經升左唔少，唔見好就收啦。
2008年5月13日 星期二
Earthquake
That's basically "the news" today. Anything related like cement, construction materials and medicine go up. I think they are not backed by fundamental at all. Cement are heavy and difficult to transport, so only the local suppliers benefit. Damage is mainly in rural area, so not much rebuilding is needed. If you want to buy I would buy the construction machineries in Japan, which has much better earnings visibility. Who knows why the hype will end? May be even intra day!!
Luckily I said to take profit on the put last week, today market is up more than expected. It will be wise to sell the call as well to reduce risk.
Internet plays are major outperformers this month, reflecting the fact that they are the least affected in an economic slowdown. Tecent (700 HK) is a good long term story, but need to wait for a pull back before I buy.
Thailand is relatively a good place to invest your money this year, as they are benefitting from the soaring rice price and the pro-business government. Thailand has underperform Asia for a long time due to political uncertainties. However, the coup is over and Thaksan is back in Thailand. Lowering of properties tax should also boast the real estate market there, listed company include Quality Houses, LPN, Land & Houses..etc
Luckily I said to take profit on the put last week, today market is up more than expected. It will be wise to sell the call as well to reduce risk.
Internet plays are major outperformers this month, reflecting the fact that they are the least affected in an economic slowdown. Tecent (700 HK) is a good long term story, but need to wait for a pull back before I buy.
Thailand is relatively a good place to invest your money this year, as they are benefitting from the soaring rice price and the pro-business government. Thailand has underperform Asia for a long time due to political uncertainties. However, the coup is over and Thaksan is back in Thailand. Lowering of properties tax should also boast the real estate market there, listed company include Quality Houses, LPN, Land & Houses..etc
2008年5月12日 星期一
好想住屋村......
其實一直都有咁既感覺，因為我住親既地方都好無果種........地道、市井、Petit-bourgeosie 既感覺。
可能你會覺得我太養專處優，先會有此白痴既想法。我係我認，不過我個人不嬲都係有種"romantism"，係咁就係咁。 我睇左尋日份"明報"，有個標題係"學者憂全港太古城化"。 我完全明白佢講緊乜。 好似杏花邨，太古城D咁既住宅區，完全係無左一種"人"既氣味。太整齊，太實用，太現代..... 我要住屋村!!! 唔要太古城，唔要豪宅!! 唔要會所，我要既係後行同波地!!!
不過好矛盾地，我又唔鍾意好多老人家既住宅區。我要有多點活力既，好似屯門，天水圍咁。真係好矛盾 >< 點算好?
再加上頭先睇左"姨媽的後現代生活"，真係感慨良多。我今次搬上去大陸，一定要好好唸清楚住邊度。我難道都係個好後現代既人?
可能你會覺得我太養專處優，先會有此白痴既想法。我係我認，不過我個人不嬲都係有種"romantism"，係咁就係咁。 我睇左尋日份"明報"，有個標題係"學者憂全港太古城化"。 我完全明白佢講緊乜。 好似杏花邨，太古城D咁既住宅區，完全係無左一種"人"既氣味。太整齊，太實用，太現代..... 我要住屋村!!! 唔要太古城，唔要豪宅!! 唔要會所，我要既係後行同波地!!!
不過好矛盾地，我又唔鍾意好多老人家既住宅區。我要有多點活力既，好似屯門，天水圍咁。真係好矛盾 >< 點算好?
再加上頭先睇左"姨媽的後現代生活"，真係感慨良多。我今次搬上去大陸，一定要好好唸清楚住邊度。我難道都係個好後現代既人?
2008年5月9日 星期五
Surprisingly good results in Australian banks
Aussie banks are up 3~5% right now, which may reflect that their credit market is "still" ok. Austrlia has experience the longest housing bull market (15+ years) and house owners are heavily in debt (much more than USA). Let's see how this plays out, can commodity price support a "soft landing"? I do not think so, but I do not have the conviction to short.
Elsewhere in Asia, inflation is still the hot topic. Oil price is not as important in Asia as in US, but soft commodities prices are. It is very simple, you cannot eat less, but you can spend less on entertainment and housing.
I see a lot of risks for China but not much catalyst coming this year:
Export will be affected by - rising RMB, weaker US demand, high raw material price and labor cost increase (new labor law) . The effect may not be apparent in the beginning, as companies can hide it under "recievables" and "inventory". When the slower demand from US, and later from Europe (falling housing market and lowest consumer confident in years); China export must suffer a big fall.
Many people argue that domestic consumption and Asia consumption can compensate for weaker US demand. I disagree, as the goods consumed in USA is not the same as those in China/Asia. While some goods like cloths and sport shoes may be shifted to local consuption, high value added goods are not as easy: car parts, TV/mobile phone parts, goods designed for English speakers.... Furthermore, food inflation in Asia will definately affect spending of consumers, as food is a large percentage of income when compare to consumers in USA. It is precisely those "low value added goods" that can be shift to domestic demand that those people are buying. Now they need to spend more on food items and you still expect them to consumer more to compensate for US weakness? Good luck.
I can only see the very rich Chinese consume more in this high-inflationary environment. They will not need to worry about food cost. However, don't forget those richest people (bankers) are being fired by i-banks. Bear Sterns in HK just fire 90% of their HK staff (today's news). They are like the IT people in 2000, when it was the "hottest job" in town. Last few years IPO boom was very similar to the IT bubble, and attracted a lot of "smart(ass)" young "professionals". With all those big i-banks firing people, they will have a hard time finding a job, buying a new BMW and luxurious apartment may need to wait.
Yes, people spend more and invest in housing in an inflationary environment. However, do you seriously think people will invest more in housing when the inflation is in food??? This time the inflation is not in all the general goods or the luxury goods. It is mainly food and oil. I will let you answer this question yourself.
That's enough for now and enjoy more of my bearish comments next time.
If you listen to my last post and buy put or call/put 3 days ago. I think you can take profit on the put now :). I am not the greedy kind of trader, cash in my pocket is better than money in a warrant.
Elsewhere in Asia, inflation is still the hot topic. Oil price is not as important in Asia as in US, but soft commodities prices are. It is very simple, you cannot eat less, but you can spend less on entertainment and housing.
I see a lot of risks for China but not much catalyst coming this year:
Export will be affected by - rising RMB, weaker US demand, high raw material price and labor cost increase (new labor law) . The effect may not be apparent in the beginning, as companies can hide it under "recievables" and "inventory". When the slower demand from US, and later from Europe (falling housing market and lowest consumer confident in years); China export must suffer a big fall.
Many people argue that domestic consumption and Asia consumption can compensate for weaker US demand. I disagree, as the goods consumed in USA is not the same as those in China/Asia. While some goods like cloths and sport shoes may be shifted to local consuption, high value added goods are not as easy: car parts, TV/mobile phone parts, goods designed for English speakers.... Furthermore, food inflation in Asia will definately affect spending of consumers, as food is a large percentage of income when compare to consumers in USA. It is precisely those "low value added goods" that can be shift to domestic demand that those people are buying. Now they need to spend more on food items and you still expect them to consumer more to compensate for US weakness? Good luck.
I can only see the very rich Chinese consume more in this high-inflationary environment. They will not need to worry about food cost. However, don't forget those richest people (bankers) are being fired by i-banks. Bear Sterns in HK just fire 90% of their HK staff (today's news). They are like the IT people in 2000, when it was the "hottest job" in town. Last few years IPO boom was very similar to the IT bubble, and attracted a lot of "smart(ass)" young "professionals". With all those big i-banks firing people, they will have a hard time finding a job, buying a new BMW and luxurious apartment may need to wait.
Yes, people spend more and invest in housing in an inflationary environment. However, do you seriously think people will invest more in housing when the inflation is in food??? This time the inflation is not in all the general goods or the luxury goods. It is mainly food and oil. I will let you answer this question yourself.
That's enough for now and enjoy more of my bearish comments next time.
If you listen to my last post and buy put or call/put 3 days ago. I think you can take profit on the put now :). I am not the greedy kind of trader, cash in my pocket is better than money in a warrant.
2008年5月6日 星期二
Philippines - oversold?
Everyone know the rice price is causing major inflation in Philippines (largest rice importer in the world), but their stock index has tumbled nearly every day for months!! I think this is oversold and some selected big caps should rebound soon, namely PLDT, SM Investment, Megaworld...etc
In HK, imp vol in the index warrants went down, but I think the market is definately not in a "stable state", meaning that buying call or put will be a good idea now. Although market have risen a lot already and buying puts seems more logical, you never know what is the next policy in China.
In HK, imp vol in the index warrants went down, but I think the market is definately not in a "stable state", meaning that buying call or put will be a good idea now. Although market have risen a lot already and buying puts seems more logical, you never know what is the next policy in China.
2008年5月5日 星期一
Don't guess the top in an up trend..
Although I have been wrong for quite sometime on the overall market movement, at least my core holdings are up more than the market, namely 1068 and 999. 1068 HK is my favourite pork play and I have wrote about it earlier.
I took a look at other food plays in China, but most have been up already like Chaoda Modern. Two US listed companies caught my eye, they are FEED and SEED. FEED just bought a number of pig farms in Southern China by issuing new shares to market. They buy the pig farms at 3 times P/E but sell their own shares at over 60 times P/E (historical). I think there is something fishy here. However, if you look at their graph, you can't really blame them for selling!
SEED is totally another story, it main business is selling their bio-engineered seeds in China. Given the recent price hike in overall food price, SEED should be able to attract investors attention soon. However, this is such a small company that not many sell side coverage is avaliable. This can be explosive, not bad for a small bet, like buying mark 6.
I took a look at other food plays in China, but most have been up already like Chaoda Modern. Two US listed companies caught my eye, they are FEED and SEED. FEED just bought a number of pig farms in Southern China by issuing new shares to market. They buy the pig farms at 3 times P/E but sell their own shares at over 60 times P/E (historical). I think there is something fishy here. However, if you look at their graph, you can't really blame them for selling!
SEED is totally another story, it main business is selling their bio-engineered seeds in China. Given the recent price hike in overall food price, SEED should be able to attract investors attention soon. However, this is such a small company that not many sell side coverage is avaliable. This can be explosive, not bad for a small bet, like buying mark 6.
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