Financial Reform in USA?

Haha, 116.HK continue to go up! Go go gold! I think it is bad idea to buy real gold now, near the $1000 level. Better play with the gold retailers in HK, which is supported by strong consumer spending growth.

HK market still risky this week, with another long weekend. Jobs data in USA will be released on Fri, so people probably won't want to risk it for the long weekend.

I still think it is a good idea to sell put on high volatility stocks/index with limited downside. I am not naming stocks here, but many of my friends think that their "facourite" stock have been down so much and is sooooo cheap now. The only problem is that we do not know when they will go up. So the best way to benefit from this is: sell a put at a stirke price that you will buy it anyways.

China Resources Power 華潤電力 (836 HK) annouced earnings, in-line with consesus . I still think it is the best out of the power utilities in China. It has the most effecient operation (25.5% OP margin) and expanding to coal mining to secure raw material. Government will continue to remove small IPP and support more efficient and environment friendly large powerplants. Electricity price cannot be freeze forever. It is already very cheap and should experience the smallest unit fuel cost increase among peers Capacity set to increase 80% by 2010. They are the best because of the excellent cost control. (Their typical powerplant with 2 units only need 100 employees, only 10% ~20% of peers. Centralize coal sourcing also help them to get better pricing without using a middleman. Debt/ Equity of 0.76 is healthy for power utility company (internal aim for 1.5 at max), with 18% in HKD and 37% fixed rate borrowings which can mitigate the risk of rate hike in China.

On other stocks.... I think 2883 is a strong buy below $10 HKD. As a oil service provider with a huge parent (CNOOC), future is bright even if oil price is volatile. Most fund managers prefer service provider than the mining/ oil companies anyways. It would be the core holding of most long funds in bull market.

Goldman upgrades China to overweight.

Finally, after nearly 5 month of underweight. Valuations looks much better now but I am sure they will downgrade again if HSCEI is up to 15000 again. I agree wtih them that China may finally outperform in the near term, but I would trade it with a "long- short" or simply option startegies like "sell put buy call" to limit the amount of capital commited in this trade.

Soft commodities rallies back faster than I expected, may be USD is simply too weak.

2343 HK seems toppy, sell now and buy back below $10.

China Life has very high imp vol, time to sell OTM puts of 1 to 3 months. Stirke price should be the price that you will buy the stock anyways, so why not earn the premium?

Selling covered calls on your holdings is also a good strategy this year, it is not likely that the market will go up a lot anyways. Do not waste your holding! Violatility is an asset!

Seems that commodities will go through correction for a while...

That price model really good ah.... predict it will go down this week....

next week is predicted to be up, so let's see!!

Look again in the Agriculture space?

Many of the agri plays fall even more than the broader market, and they deserve to outperform after the "2 conference" in Beijing given the support from government.

Tickers to look at: 38 HK, 297 HK and 1068 HK.

Internet names listed in US are also becoming much cheaper and start to show good entry points for long term investors. I like the following: SINA US, CTRP US, SNDA US. BIDU US is interesting, but still quite expensive. Wait until it get under 200, then I may buy.

Japan outperform by FAR this year, because the yen appreciated more than 10%. However you can only make money if you hold all cash in yen and not buy any stocks. Argh.....

On futures trading: What about Short HSCEI and Long HSI? This trend seems to last....

Yen at 96 now..

Technically... not much resistant until 76 ye/USD. So basically it can go anywhere now. I am quite disapoint with BOJ, doing nothing.

HK is down over 1000 points again, but I do not think this is the bottom. Everyone thinks bottom is at 20000, so the real bottom may be even below that. Short to hedge now.

Market Crash

JPY/USD at 100!!
Massive unwinding of carry trades.

FED or BOJ better do something! It's time to buy Straddles for major indexes.

A lot of bad news recently

Buy Idea:
PCCW (0008.HK): seems to have bottomed out. Telecom sector in HK remains competitive, but PCCW's main business lines are all showing OK growth. High div yield is a plus. Many fund managers are searching for stocks to "hide", this may be one of them. Smartone is also high yield, and has a lot of cash at hand, but small caps are too dangerous right now.
SNDA US: I think it will rebound for 10% in short term. Buy now and set a limit sell order.