Finally, after nearly 5 month of underweight. Valuations looks much better now but I am sure they will downgrade again if HSCEI is up to 15000 again. I agree wtih them that China may finally outperform in the near term, but I would trade it with a "long- short" or simply option startegies like "sell put buy call" to limit the amount of capital commited in this trade.
Soft commodities rallies back faster than I expected, may be USD is simply too weak.
2343 HK seems toppy, sell now and buy back below $10.
China Life has very high imp vol, time to sell OTM puts of 1 to 3 months. Stirke price should be the price that you will buy the stock anyways, so why not earn the premium?
Selling covered calls on your holdings is also a good strategy this year, it is not likely that the market will go up a lot anyways. Do not waste your holding! Violatility is an asset!
2008年3月27日 星期四
2008年3月20日 星期四
Seems that commodities will go through correction for a while...
That price model really good ah.... predict it will go down this week....
next week is predicted to be up, so let's see!!
next week is predicted to be up, so let's see!!
2008年3月18日 星期二
Look again in the Agriculture space?
Many of the agri plays fall even more than the broader market, and they deserve to outperform after the "2 conference" in Beijing given the support from government.
Tickers to look at: 38 HK, 297 HK and 1068 HK.
Internet names listed in US are also becoming much cheaper and start to show good entry points for long term investors. I like the following: SINA US, CTRP US, SNDA US. BIDU US is interesting, but still quite expensive. Wait until it get under 200, then I may buy.
Japan outperform by FAR this year, because the yen appreciated more than 10%. However you can only make money if you hold all cash in yen and not buy any stocks. Argh.....
On futures trading: What about Short HSCEI and Long HSI? This trend seems to last....
Tickers to look at: 38 HK, 297 HK and 1068 HK.
Internet names listed in US are also becoming much cheaper and start to show good entry points for long term investors. I like the following: SINA US, CTRP US, SNDA US. BIDU US is interesting, but still quite expensive. Wait until it get under 200, then I may buy.
Japan outperform by FAR this year, because the yen appreciated more than 10%. However you can only make money if you hold all cash in yen and not buy any stocks. Argh.....
On futures trading: What about Short HSCEI and Long HSI? This trend seems to last....
2008年3月17日 星期一
Yen at 96 now..
Technically... not much resistant until 76 ye/USD. So basically it can go anywhere now. I am quite disapoint with BOJ, doing nothing.
HK is down over 1000 points again, but I do not think this is the bottom. Everyone thinks bottom is at 20000, so the real bottom may be even below that. Short to hedge now.
HK is down over 1000 points again, but I do not think this is the bottom. Everyone thinks bottom is at 20000, so the real bottom may be even below that. Short to hedge now.
2008年3月13日 星期四
Market Crash
JPY/USD at 100!!
Massive unwinding of carry trades.
FED or BOJ better do something! It's time to buy Straddles for major indexes.
Massive unwinding of carry trades.
FED or BOJ better do something! It's time to buy Straddles for major indexes.
2008年3月11日 星期二
A lot of bad news recently
Buy Idea:
PCCW (0008.HK): seems to have bottomed out. Telecom sector in HK remains competitive, but PCCW's main business lines are all showing OK growth. High div yield is a plus. Many fund managers are searching for stocks to "hide", this may be one of them. Smartone is also high yield, and has a lot of cash at hand, but small caps are too dangerous right now.
SNDA US: I think it will rebound for 10% in short term. Buy now and set a limit sell order.
PCCW (0008.HK): seems to have bottomed out. Telecom sector in HK remains competitive, but PCCW's main business lines are all showing OK growth. High div yield is a plus. Many fund managers are searching for stocks to "hide", this may be one of them. Smartone is also high yield, and has a lot of cash at hand, but small caps are too dangerous right now.
SNDA US: I think it will rebound for 10% in short term. Buy now and set a limit sell order.
訂閱:
意見 (Atom)