2008年11月25日 星期二
You know one industry is in "bubble" state when....
all your friends are working in that industry......
2008年11月14日 星期五
Looking Back......
My US account since 01 March 2007.... (no...I did not trade before I left my job ga, just virtual trading la :) )
So far performance is ...... +29.3% If I use asset value now over total capital invested.
If I invest everything in the beginning, I will have +60.6% return.
I dunno if that's good or not la.... at least I did not lose money this year....
I did some analysis myself:
I think I behave more like a hedge fund... my performance is not really correlate to the market...
So far performance is ...... +29.3% If I use asset value now over total capital invested.
If I invest everything in the beginning, I will have +60.6% return.
I dunno if that's good or not la.... at least I did not lose money this year....
I did some analysis myself:
| Month | Darkwind's Performance | Hang Seng Index Performance |
| Mar-07 | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| Apr-07 | 21.4% | 2.6% |
| May-07 | 29.5% | 1.6% |
| Jun-07 | 2.1% | 5.5% |
| Jul-07 | 15.5% | 6.5% |
| Aug-07 | -16.6% | 3.4% |
| Sep-07 | 0.7% | 13.2% |
| Oct-07 | 8.5% | 15.5% |
| Nov-07 | -4.8% | -8.6% |
| Dec-07 | -1.7% | -2.9% |
| Jan-08 | 0.2% | -15.7% |
| Feb-08 | 14.3% | 3.7% |
| Mar-08 | -5.0% | -6.1% |
| Apr-08 | -7.1% | 12.7% |
| May-08 | 5.3% | -4.7% |
| Jun-08 | 4.6% | -9.9% |
| Jul-08 | -3.9% | 2.8% |
| Aug-08 | 4.4% | -6.5% |
| Sep-08 | -10.7% | -15.3% |
| Oct-08 | -12.7% | -22.5% |
| Nov-08 | 17.5% | -5.3% |
| Total Return | 60.6% | -32.7% |
| Standard Deviation | 11.7% | 9.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 5.2 | -3.3 |
I think I behave more like a hedge fund... my performance is not really correlate to the market...
Predictions on Properties & Commodities
Properties:
Global properties are going down, worst in UK and Aus... They are way too leveraged before, even more so than USA. Now they will see years of declining to come.
HK is no much better, although the newspaper may tell you we are much healthier financially than 1997.
My prediction for 2008: HK property price down 20%, with very low volume.
Reasons: HK people are less leverage this time and most medium to low price flats are mortgaged at a affordable level. Those high end are doomed, as they rise too much and the real demand: rich bankers and overseas workers, are declining fast.
However, due to the fact that people are less leveraged this time, flat owners will NOT be willing to sell their flat at a much lower price. The buyer, on the other hand, expect the price to go down further.
End result: Very low volume, as sellers unwilling to lower price, buyers no want to buy yet. Transaction prices will lack indicative power, and difference between transactions will be great, as some sellers who need cash quickly will accept huge discounts.
Commodities:
This time is "different" !?
Well, that is a very common sentence in the finance world. However, I do think the recession this time is different from the previous few recessions. In the recession in 1991, 1997, 2001, only one sector was collapsing. This time, it is the banks that are collapsing, which affect everyone's pocket.
Let me explain in more detail:
Mines, oil wells, corn field... all need financing to start. The world have basically stopped to finance large projects like that, which means we will not se new gold mines, new iron mines or oil wells in the near future...
Adding to that, all countries are printing money now, which will come back to haunt us when economy finally bottoms. With no new supplies and demand coming back, all those new money will add inflationary pressure to commodities.
I am not saying commodities will rise any time soon, but this problem will be a drag for the recovering phase after this recession. so I expect this bear market will continue much longer than what most people are expecting...
Global properties are going down, worst in UK and Aus... They are way too leveraged before, even more so than USA. Now they will see years of declining to come.
HK is no much better, although the newspaper may tell you we are much healthier financially than 1997.
My prediction for 2008: HK property price down 20%, with very low volume.
Reasons: HK people are less leverage this time and most medium to low price flats are mortgaged at a affordable level. Those high end are doomed, as they rise too much and the real demand: rich bankers and overseas workers, are declining fast.
However, due to the fact that people are less leveraged this time, flat owners will NOT be willing to sell their flat at a much lower price. The buyer, on the other hand, expect the price to go down further.
End result: Very low volume, as sellers unwilling to lower price, buyers no want to buy yet. Transaction prices will lack indicative power, and difference between transactions will be great, as some sellers who need cash quickly will accept huge discounts.
Commodities:
This time is "different" !?
Well, that is a very common sentence in the finance world. However, I do think the recession this time is different from the previous few recessions. In the recession in 1991, 1997, 2001, only one sector was collapsing. This time, it is the banks that are collapsing, which affect everyone's pocket.
Let me explain in more detail:
Mines, oil wells, corn field... all need financing to start. The world have basically stopped to finance large projects like that, which means we will not se new gold mines, new iron mines or oil wells in the near future...
Adding to that, all countries are printing money now, which will come back to haunt us when economy finally bottoms. With no new supplies and demand coming back, all those new money will add inflationary pressure to commodities.
I am not saying commodities will rise any time soon, but this problem will be a drag for the recovering phase after this recession. so I expect this bear market will continue much longer than what most people are expecting...
2008年11月13日 星期四
Pricing in Christmas
Bailout plans, stimulus plans, relief Plans, infrastructure development plans.....
We see so many plans in the news these few month, on top of the bankruptcy news that are filling the headlines. The market bound a bit and analyst/commenters change their tone accordingly. The next few days, market is down again.
Its like having a stomachache, it is very painful and you have to shit non-stop. Eating an energy bar every now and then may let you feel better, but things are still leaking below and you are not out of the shit room yet. Only when you have shit all the dirty, toxic "food" you ate, and your intestines calm down, you can wipe your ass and go back to work.
Sorry for this smelly example, I apologize for my lack of imagination, but this is the closest metaphor I can think of in the last 5 minutes.
So... how does this relate to pricing in Christmas? Well, its the same idea, imagine celebrating christmas with your pants of and busy shitting. Must be fun huh?
All those actions and plans just mean we are in for the worst Christmas economically for the last 70 years. You can't really spend when you already pay over $1 trillion for Thanksgiving.
I do not see what the Bush government can do before he say byebye. Still a bear, I see no exit yet. Don't talk about de-coupling with me before you study atomic physics 101. :)
Finally, let's look at the graph of Japan's Nikkei 225 and HK's Hang Seng Index:
We are still in 1991!! Without the financial bubble, imagine what will happen to stock price and housing price!! Depreciate over the next 20 years??
We see so many plans in the news these few month, on top of the bankruptcy news that are filling the headlines. The market bound a bit and analyst/commenters change their tone accordingly. The next few days, market is down again.
Its like having a stomachache, it is very painful and you have to shit non-stop. Eating an energy bar every now and then may let you feel better, but things are still leaking below and you are not out of the shit room yet. Only when you have shit all the dirty, toxic "food" you ate, and your intestines calm down, you can wipe your ass and go back to work.
Sorry for this smelly example, I apologize for my lack of imagination, but this is the closest metaphor I can think of in the last 5 minutes.
So... how does this relate to pricing in Christmas? Well, its the same idea, imagine celebrating christmas with your pants of and busy shitting. Must be fun huh?
All those actions and plans just mean we are in for the worst Christmas economically for the last 70 years. You can't really spend when you already pay over $1 trillion for Thanksgiving.
I do not see what the Bush government can do before he say byebye. Still a bear, I see no exit yet. Don't talk about de-coupling with me before you study atomic physics 101. :)
Finally, let's look at the graph of Japan's Nikkei 225 and HK's Hang Seng Index:
We are still in 1991!! Without the financial bubble, imagine what will happen to stock price and housing price!! Depreciate over the next 20 years??
2008年10月6日 星期一
2008年9月24日 星期三
The Japs are buying...
Japan is one of my most familiar market, as I spend nearly one year just focusing on Japanese market. Japanese companies and their banks are famous for their conservatism and their large pile of cash.
The Japs have been soo risk-averse after the 1990 bubble burst that they love to be "debt-free", the exact opposite of their US counterparts. There is a dilemma in this, as Japanese companies has very little growth in the domestic market, but are reluctant to borrow and expand to other countries. This problem is especially obvious for the big Japanese banks, which has large retail deposits but no where to spend it. Explanation: Japs love to put their cash in banks, they do no trust the stock market anymore. They also know that the housing market is not guarantee to go up forever (when will Chinese learn that?) , they have experienced the biggest housing bubble before 2008 and also frequent earthquakes confirms their view that real estate is a liability (mortgage payment) while the actual house depreciate over time.
Now the Japanese banks are finally taking action, Mitsubishi UFJ and Nomura have start to purchase overseas business from the dying US financials . This is a good step and will allow them to grow while the domestic market slowly contract due to the aging and decreasing population.
This is the best time for the Japanese companies to put their cash into good use. Not just the banks. I really think Nintendo should do something with their over 1 trillion cash deposit in bank....
Only time will tell if the Jap market will become a market that worth investing again. I still think it is not, not yet.
The Japs have been soo risk-averse after the 1990 bubble burst that they love to be "debt-free", the exact opposite of their US counterparts. There is a dilemma in this, as Japanese companies has very little growth in the domestic market, but are reluctant to borrow and expand to other countries. This problem is especially obvious for the big Japanese banks, which has large retail deposits but no where to spend it. Explanation: Japs love to put their cash in banks, they do no trust the stock market anymore. They also know that the housing market is not guarantee to go up forever (when will Chinese learn that?) , they have experienced the biggest housing bubble before 2008 and also frequent earthquakes confirms their view that real estate is a liability (mortgage payment) while the actual house depreciate over time.
Now the Japanese banks are finally taking action, Mitsubishi UFJ and Nomura have start to purchase overseas business from the dying US financials . This is a good step and will allow them to grow while the domestic market slowly contract due to the aging and decreasing population.
This is the best time for the Japanese companies to put their cash into good use. Not just the banks. I really think Nintendo should do something with their over 1 trillion cash deposit in bank....
Only time will tell if the Jap market will become a market that worth investing again. I still think it is not, not yet.
2008年9月23日 星期二
Financial markets
Well... I have stopped writing about the financial market and economy for a long time, but I think its time to revisit it.
Much have happened in the last few months, especially last weeks. Huge financial entities have collapsed, bailout or merged. Things are getting worse... (as expected XD )
Now, you should have seen enough of those bad news, let's talk about something else! Sovereign wealth funds (SWF), one of the big topics last year, is now almost forgotten. However, I think that their importance now is higher than ever. They are probably one of the few big institutions that are still holding a lot of cash to purchase. They have a few aims: get better return from their countries reserve funds, gain "power" in international relationship with their money, secure resources and technology.
For example, you can expect Chinese Investment Corp to increase their investment in resources companies/ actual mines. The prices have come down a lot and they should have much higher bargaining power now, I do not think those "patriots" have much say now when their economies need cash so urgently. The incident of CNOOC failing to buy Unocal because of politics should be harder to repeat now.
Out of my guts feelings, I think SWF will also increase their spending in the real estate market. Targets including class A commercial properties in NY, London and other major cities. Residential properties may have some potentials too. However it is hard to detect as SWF are usually very secretive. This is a good chance for them to get a long term income generating asset with proven record (they are not venture capital after all).
SWF may well be the "investor of last resort" in the current market. Keep your eyes for their news!!
By the way, seems that a lot of people are thinking the same thing as me:
Vitasoy (維他奶) was up 15% on 22 Sep. (Many restaurants use vitasoy instead of milk now!)
Much have happened in the last few months, especially last weeks. Huge financial entities have collapsed, bailout or merged. Things are getting worse... (as expected XD )
Now, you should have seen enough of those bad news, let's talk about something else! Sovereign wealth funds (SWF), one of the big topics last year, is now almost forgotten. However, I think that their importance now is higher than ever. They are probably one of the few big institutions that are still holding a lot of cash to purchase. They have a few aims: get better return from their countries reserve funds, gain "power" in international relationship with their money, secure resources and technology.
For example, you can expect Chinese Investment Corp to increase their investment in resources companies/ actual mines. The prices have come down a lot and they should have much higher bargaining power now, I do not think those "patriots" have much say now when their economies need cash so urgently. The incident of CNOOC failing to buy Unocal because of politics should be harder to repeat now.
Out of my guts feelings, I think SWF will also increase their spending in the real estate market. Targets including class A commercial properties in NY, London and other major cities. Residential properties may have some potentials too. However it is hard to detect as SWF are usually very secretive. This is a good chance for them to get a long term income generating asset with proven record (they are not venture capital after all).
SWF may well be the "investor of last resort" in the current market. Keep your eyes for their news!!
By the way, seems that a lot of people are thinking the same thing as me:
Vitasoy (維他奶) was up 15% on 22 Sep. (Many restaurants use vitasoy instead of milk now!)
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